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A geospatial model of forest dynamics with controlled trend surface

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  • Liang, Jingjing
  • Zhou, Mo

Abstract

This paper proposes a method of controlled trend surface to simultaneously account for large-scale spatial trends and non-spatial local effects. With this method, a geospatial model of forest dynamics was developed for the Alaska boreal forest from 446 constantly monitored permanent sample plots. The geospatial component of this model represented large-scale spatial trends in recruitment, diameter growth, and mortality. The model was tested on two sets of validation plots which represented temporal and spatial extensions of the current sample coverage. The results suggest that the controlled trend surface model was generally more accurate than both the non-spatial and conventional trend surface models. With this model, we mapped the forest dynamics of the entire Alaska boreal region by aggregating predicted stand states across the region. It was predicted that under current conditions of climate and natural disturbances, most of the Alaska boreal forest region may undergo a major shift from deciduous-dominant to conifer-dominant, with an average increase of 0.33m2hayear−1 in basal area over the Twenty-First Century.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang, Jingjing & Zhou, Mo, 2010. "A geospatial model of forest dynamics with controlled trend surface," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(19), pages 2339-2352.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:19:p:2339-2352
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.06.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Valerie A. Barber & Glenn Patrick Juday & Bruce P. Finney, 2000. "Reduced growth of Alaskan white spruce in the twentieth century from temperature-induced drought stress," Nature, Nature, vol. 405(6787), pages 668-673, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Abotaleb Salehnasab & Harold E. Burkhart & Mahmoud Bayat & Bagher Khaleghi & Sahar Heidari & Hafiz Umair Masood Awan, 2022. "Projection Matrix Models: A Suitable Approach for Predicting Sustainable Growth in Uneven-Aged and Mixed Hyrcanian Forests," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, June.
    2. Zhou, Mo, 2015. "Adapting sustainable forest management to climate policy uncertainty: A conceptual framework," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 66-74.

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