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Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China

Author

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  • Feng, Hongqiang
  • Gould, Fred
  • Huang, Yunxin
  • Jiang, Yuying
  • Wu, Kongming

Abstract

The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is one of the most serious crop pests in northern China, calling for accurate prediction of pest outbreaks and strategies for pest control. A computer model is developed to simulate the population dynamics of H. armigera over a wide area in northern China. The area considered covers 12 provinces where serious outbreaks of H. armigera have been observed. In this model, pest development is driven by local ambient temperature, and adults migrate long distances between regions and select preferred hosts for oviposition within a region. Six types of host including cotton, wheat, corn, peanut, soybean and a single category composed of all other minor hosts are considered in this model. Survival rates of eggs and larvae are based on life-table data, and simulated as a function of host type, host phenology and temperature. The incidence of diapause depends on temperature and photoperiod experienced during the larval stage. Survival rate of non-diapause pupae is a nonlinear function of rainfall, and overwinter survival rate is a nonlinear function of temperature. Insecticide is applied when population density exceeds the economic threshold on a host crop within a region. Comparisons of model output with light-trap data indicate that our model reflects the pest population dynamics over a wide area, and could potentially be used for testing novel pest control strategies in northern China.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Hongqiang & Gould, Fred & Huang, Yunxin & Jiang, Yuying & Wu, Kongming, 2010. "Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(15), pages 1819-1830.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:15:p:1819-1830
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.04.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Rosalia Azambuja & Paulo Degrande & Ricardo Santos & Ellen Souza & Carlos Gomes, 2015. "Effect of Bt Soybean on Larvae of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)," Journal of Agricultural Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 7(8), pages 1-90, July.
    2. Blum, Moshe & Nestel, David & Cohen, Yafit & Goldshtein, Eitan & Helman, David & Lensky, Itamar M., 2018. "Predicting Heliothis (Helicoverpa armigera) pest population dynamics with an age-structured insect population model driven by satellite data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 369(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Wang, Wenhui & Xu, Feng & Huang, Yunxin & Feng, Hongqiang & Wan, Peng, 2022. "Modeling the evolution of resistance in cotton bollworm to concurrently planted Bt cotton and Bt maize in China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 467(C).

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