IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v220y2009i18p2244-2254.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COSMOS, a spatially explicit model to simulate the epidemiology of Cosmopolites sordidus in banana fields

Author

Listed:
  • Vinatier, Fabrice
  • Tixier, Philippe
  • Le Page, Christophe
  • Duyck, Pierre-François
  • Lescourret, Françoise

Abstract

A stochastic individual-based model called COSMOS was developed to simulate the epidemiology of banana weevil Cosmopolites sordidus, a major pest of banana fields. The model is based on simple rules of local movement of adults, egg laying of females, development and mortality, and infestation of larvae inside the banana plants. The biological parameters were estimated from the literature, and the model was validated at the small-plot scale. Simulated and observed distributions of attacks were similar except for five plots out of 18, using a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. These exceptions may be explained by variation in predation of eggs and measurement error. An exhaustive sensitivity analysis using the Morris method showed that predation rate of eggs, demographic parameters of adults and mortality rate of larvae were the most influential parameters. COSMOS was therefore used to test different spatial arrangements of banana plants on the epidemiology of C. sordidus. Planting bananas in groups increased the time required to colonise plots but also the percentage of banana plants with severe attacks. Spatial heterogeneity of banana stages had no effect on time required to colonise plots but increased the mean level of attacks. Our model helps explain key factors of population dynamics and the epidemiology of this tropical pest.

Suggested Citation

  • Vinatier, Fabrice & Tixier, Philippe & Le Page, Christophe & Duyck, Pierre-François & Lescourret, Françoise, 2009. "COSMOS, a spatially explicit model to simulate the epidemiology of Cosmopolites sordidus in banana fields," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(18), pages 2244-2254.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:18:p:2244-2254
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.06.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380009004062
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.06.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Winkler, Eckart & Heinken, Thilo, 2007. "Spread of an ant-dispersed annual herb: An individual-based simulation study on population development of Melampyrum pratense L," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 424-438.
    2. Charnell, Moshi Arthur, 2008. "An individual-based model of a tritrophic ecology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 218(3), pages 195-206.
    3. Johnson, Scott N. & Zhang, Xiaoxian & Crawford, John W. & Gregory, Peter J. & Young, Iain M., 2007. "Egg hatching and survival time of soil-dwelling insect larvae: A partial differential equation model and experimental validation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 493-502.
    4. Cariboni, J. & Gatelli, D. & Liska, R. & Saltelli, A., 2007. "The role of sensitivity analysis in ecological modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 167-182.
    5. Arrignon, Florent & Deconchat, Marc & Sarthou, Jean-Pierre & Balent, Gérard & Monteil, Claude, 2007. "Modelling the overwintering strategy of a beneficial insect in a heterogeneous landscape using a multi-agent system," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 205(3), pages 423-436.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco A. Buendia-Hernandez & Maria J. Ortiz Bevia & Francisco J. Alvarez-Garcia & Antonio Ruizde Elvira, 2022. "Sensitivity of a Dynamic Model of Air Traffic Emissions to Technological and Environmental Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Imron, Muhammad Ali & Gergs, Andre & Berger, Uta, 2012. "Structure and sensitivity analysis of individual-based predator–prey models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 71-81.
    3. Pelletier, Dominique & Mahevas, Stéphanie & Drouineau, Hilaire & Vermard, Youen & Thebaud, Olivier & Guyader, Olivier & Poussin, Benjamin, 2009. "Evaluation of the bioeconomic sustainability of multi-species multi-fleet fisheries under a wide range of policy options using ISIS-Fish," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(7), pages 1013-1033.
    4. Frank H. Koch & Denys Yemshanov & Daniel W. McKenney & William D. Smith, 2009. "Evaluating Critical Uncertainty Thresholds in a Spatial Model of Forest Pest Invasion Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(9), pages 1227-1241, September.
    5. Lorscheid, Iris & Meyer, Matthias, 2016. "Divide and conquer: Configuring submodels for valid and efficient analyses of complex simulation models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 152-161.
    6. Kanapaux, William & Kiker, Gregory A., 2013. "Development and testing of an object-oriented model for adaptively managing human disturbance of least tern (Sternula antillarum) nesting habitat," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 268(C), pages 64-77.
    7. Chu-Agor, M.L. & Muñoz-Carpena, R. & Kiker, G.A. & Aiello-Lammens, M.E. & Akçakaya, H.R. & Convertino, M. & Linkov, I., 2012. "Simulating the fate of Florida Snowy Plovers with sea-level rise: Exploring research and management priorities with a global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis perspective," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 33-47.
    8. Petropoulos, G. & Wooster, M.J. & Carlson, T.N. & Kennedy, M.C. & Scholze, M., 2009. "A global Bayesian sensitivity analysis of the 1d SimSphere soil–vegetation–atmospheric transfer (SVAT) model using Gaussian model emulation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(19), pages 2427-2440.
    9. Gregory Hill & Steven Kolmes & Michael Humphreys & Rebecca McLain & Eric T. Jones, 2019. "Using decision support tools in multistakeholder environmental planning: restorative justice and subbasin planning in the Columbia River Basin," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 9(2), pages 170-186, June.
    10. Wernsdörfer, H. & Rossi, V. & Cornu, G. & Oddou-Muratorio, S. & Gourlet-Fleury, S., 2008. "Impact of uncertainty in tree mortality on the predictions of a tropical forest dynamics model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 218(3), pages 290-306.
    11. Rougier, Thibaud & Drouineau, Hilaire & Dumoulin, Nicolas & Faure, Thierry & Deffuant, Guillaume & Rochard, Eric & Lambert, Patrick, 2014. "The GR3D model, a tool to explore the Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 283(C), pages 31-44.
    12. McLane, Adam J. & Semeniuk, Christina & McDermid, Gregory J. & Marceau, Danielle J., 2011. "The role of agent-based models in wildlife ecology and management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(8), pages 1544-1556.
    13. Lola Gilbert & Tiphaine Jeanniard-du-Dot & Matthieu Authier & Tiphaine Chouvelon & Jérôme Spitz, 2023. "Composition of cetacean communities worldwide shapes their contribution to ocean nutrient cycling," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Wu, Qiong-Li & Cournède, Paul-Henry & Mathieu, Amélie, 2012. "An efficient computational method for global sensitivity analysis and its application to tree growth modelling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 35-43.
    15. Song, Xiaodong & Bryan, Brett A. & Almeida, Auro C. & Paul, Keryn I. & Zhao, Gang & Ren, Yin, 2013. "Time-dependent sensitivity of a process-based ecological model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 265(C), pages 114-123.
    16. Link, Jason S. & Pranovi, Fabio & Libralato, Simone, 2022. "Simulations and interpretations of cumulative trophic theory," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 463(C).
    17. Carus, Jana & Heuner, Maike & Paul, Maike & Schröder, Boris, 2017. "Which factors and processes drive the spatio-temporal dynamics of brackish marshes?—Insights from development and parameterisation of a mechanistic vegetation model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 363(C), pages 122-136.
    18. Haythorne, Sean & Skabar, Andrew, 2013. "An improved pattern-guided evolution approach for the development of adaptive individual-based ecological models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 72-82.
    19. Zhang, Jingjing & Dennis, Todd E. & Landers, Todd J. & Bell, Elizabeth & Perry, George L.W., 2017. "Linking individual-based and statistical inferential models in movement ecology: A case study with black petrels (Procellaria parkinsoni)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 360(C), pages 425-436.
    20. Pal, Saheb & Ghosh, Indrajit, 2023. "Dynamics of a coupled socio-environmental model: An application to global CO2 emissions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 478(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:18:p:2244-2254. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.