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A modeling approach to forecast the effect of long-term climate change on lake water quality

Author

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  • Komatsu, Eiji
  • Fukushima, Takehiko
  • Harasawa, Hideo

Abstract

The long-term effect of global warming on environmental variables, such as water temperature, dissolved oxygen and nutrients as well as aquatic ecosystems was assessed. The developed watershed runoff model and reservoir water quality model with meteorological input calculated by a GCM A2 scenario is applied to Shimajigawa reservoir located in western Japan. To evaluate the sensitivity and long-term effects of climate change on water quality and aquatic ecosystems, we compare the simulated results of the lake model obtained for 1991–2001 with those obtained for 2091–2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Komatsu, Eiji & Fukushima, Takehiko & Harasawa, Hideo, 2007. "A modeling approach to forecast the effect of long-term climate change on lake water quality," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 351-366.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:209:y:2007:i:2:p:351-366
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.07.021
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    Cited by:

    1. Sarah Null & Joshua Viers & Michael Deas & Stacy Tanaka & Jeffrey Mount, 2013. "Stream temperature sensitivity to climate warming in California’s Sierra Nevada: impacts to coldwater habitat," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(1), pages 149-170, January.
    2. Hye Lee & Eun Kim & Seok Park & Jung Choi, 2012. "Effects of climate change on the thermal structure of lakes in the Asian Monsoon Area," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 859-880, June.
    3. Boudreaux, Greg & Lupi, Frank & Sohngen, Brent & Xu, Alan, 2023. "Measuring beachgoer preferences for avoiding harmful algal blooms and bacterial warnings," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    4. Bell, Andrew & Zhu, Tingju & Xie, Hua & Ringler, Claudia, 2014. "Climate–water interactions—Challenges for improved representation in integrated assessment models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 510-521.
    5. Rui Xia & Yuan Zhang & Andrea Critto & Jieyun Wu & Juntao Fan & Zhirong Zheng & Yizhang Zhang, 2016. "The Potential Impacts of Climate Change Factors on Freshwater Eutrophication: Implications for Research and Countermeasures of Water Management in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Martin Schmid & Stefan Hunziker & Alfred Wüest, 2014. "Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 124(1), pages 301-315, May.
    7. Mariusz Ptak & Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Mariusz Sojka, 2024. "Seven Decades of Surface Temperature Changes in Central European Lakes: What Is Next?," Resources, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Ye Pan & Yuan Yuan & Ting Sun & Yuxin Wang & Yujing Xie & Zhengqiu Fan, 2020. "Are the Water Quality Improvement Measures of China’s South-to-North Water Diversion Project Effective? A Case Study of Xuzhou Section in the East Route," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-21, September.
    9. Dibike, Yonas & Marshall, Rebecca & de Rham, Laurent, 2024. "Climatic sensitivity of seasonal ice-cover, water temperature and biogeochemical cycling in Lake 239 of the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA), Ontario, Canada," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 489(C).
    10. Vassilis Z. Antonopoulos & Soultana K. Gianniou, 2023. "Energy Budget, Water Quality Parameters and Primary Production Modeling in Lake Volvi in Northern Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, January.
    11. Farrell, Kaitlin J. & Ward, Nicole K. & Krinos, Arianna I. & Hanson, Paul C. & Daneshmand, Vahid & Figueiredo, Renato J. & Carey, Cayelan C., 2020. "Ecosystem-scale nutrient cycling responses to increasing air temperatures vary with lake trophic state," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    12. Murat Can, 2024. "Invasive-Weed-Optimization-Based Extreme Learning Machine for Prediction of Lake Water Level Using Major Atmospheric–Oceanic Climate Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-13, September.
    13. Animesh Debnath & Mrinmoy Majumder & Manish Pal, 2015. "A Cognitive Approach in Selection of Source for Water Treatment Plant based on Climatic Impact," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 1907-1919, April.
    14. Taner, Mehmet Ümit & Carleton, James N. & Wellman, Marjorie, 2011. "Integrated model projections of climate change impacts on a North American lake," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(18), pages 3380-3393.

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