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Testing for explosive bubbles in the presence of non-Gaussian conditions

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  • Feng, Hao

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of testing explosive bubbles under non-Gaussian conditions, which are quite common in financial data. Based on the generalized sup augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) initiated by Phillips et al. (2015a), we propose a quantile-based version named QGSADF. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed test is derived and the simulations show that the new test obtains significant power gains under the premise of controlling size distortion under non-Gaussian conditions. The application to commodity futures prices suggests that QGSADF provides stronger evidential support for bubble behavior than the GSADF test.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng, Hao, 2023. "Testing for explosive bubbles in the presence of non-Gaussian conditions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:233:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523004172
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111391
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Yang, Yang & Zhao, Zhao, 2020. "Quantile nonlinear unit root test with covariates and an application to the PPP hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 728-736.
    3. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    4. Galvao Jr., Antonio F., 2009. "Unit root quantile autoregression testing using covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 165-178, October.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1079-1134, November.
    6. Haiqi Li & Sung Y. Park, 2018. "Testing for a unit root in a nonlinear quantile autoregression framework," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 867-892, September.
    7. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Limit Theory Of Real‐Time Detectors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1079-1134, November.
    8. Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard & Schütte, Erik Christian Montes, 2020. "Testing for explosive bubbles in the presence of autocorrelated innovations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 207-225.
    9. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Zu, Yang, 2020. "Sign-Based Unit Root Tests For Explosive Financial Bubbles In The Presence Of Deterministically Time-Varying Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 122-169, February.
    10. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    11. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2004. "Unit Root Quantile Autoregression Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 775-787, January.
    12. Yang, Jisheng & Wei, Jinbao & Cai, Biqing, 2022. "Quantile unit root inference for panel data with common shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Cofre & Magdalena Mosionek-Schweda, 2023. "A simulated electronic market with speculative behaviour and bubble formation," Papers 2311.12247, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Explosive bubble; Quantile regression; Non-Gaussian conditions; Commodity futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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