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The effect of monetary policy on firm-level uncertainty

Author

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  • Lakdawala, Aeimit
  • Moreland, Timothy

Abstract

Uncertainty at the firm-level falls on FOMC announcement days with substantial variation both across firms and over time. We find that this is not related to commonly used measures of monetary policy shocks which capture surprises about the expected path of the policy rate. Rather it is driven by changes in uncertainty around the expected path of the policy rate. This effect is attenuated for firms that have higher growth opportunities (as measured by Tobin’s Q).

Suggested Citation

  • Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy, 2023. "The effect of monetary policy on firm-level uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:232:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523003440
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111319
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2023. "Cross-Sectional Uncertainty and the Business Cycle: Evidence from 40 Years of Options Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 65-96, April.
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    3. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    4. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
    5. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy transmission; Firm level uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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