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ECB monetary communications: Market fragmentation at stake

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  • Jouvanceau, Valentin
  • Mikaliunaite-Jouvanceau, Ieva

Abstract

We provide evidence that monetary policy in the Euro Area can unintentionally produce market fragmentation risk. This risk is estimated from changes in long-term bond yields around ECB monetary policy communications between 2002 and 2021. These shocks cause longer-term bond yields in periphery countries to rise significantly, which ultimately hurts their economies. The time series of these shocks are publicly available.

Suggested Citation

  • Jouvanceau, Valentin & Mikaliunaite-Jouvanceau, Ieva, 2023. "ECB monetary communications: Market fragmentation at stake," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:225:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523000757
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111050
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    2. Claus Brand & Daniel Buncic & Jarkko Turunen, 2010. "The Impact of ECB Monetary Policy Decisions and Communication on the Yield Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1266-1298, December.
    3. James Costain & Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2022. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a Heterogeneous Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 9844, CESifo.
    4. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2016. "The Mystery of the Printing Press: Monetary Policy and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1329-1371.
    5. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    6. Leombroni, Matteo & Vedolin, Andrea & Venter, Gyuri & Whelan, Paul, 2021. "Central bank communication and the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 860-880.
    7. Valentin Jouvanceau & Ieva Mikaliunaite, 2020. "Euro Area Monetary Communications: Excess Sensitivity and Perception Shocks," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 79, Bank of Lithuania.
    8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2012. "The "Mystery of the Printing Press" Monetary Policy and Self-fulfilling Debt Crises," Discussion Papers 1424, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Aug 2014.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market fragmentation risk; High-frequency identification; ECB communications;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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