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Instrument approval by the Sargan test and its consequences for coefficient estimation

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  • Kiviet, Jan F.
  • Kripfganz, Sebastian

Abstract

Empirical econometric findings are often vindicated by supplementing them with the p-values of Sargan–Hansen tests for overidentifying restrictions, provided these exceed a chosen small nominal significance level. It is illustrated here that the probability that such tests reject instrument validity may often barely exceed small levels, even when instruments are seriously invalid, whereas even minor invalidity of instruments can severely undermine inference on regression coefficients by instrumental variable estimators. These uncomfortable patterns may be aggravated when particular valid or invalid instruments are relatively weak or strong.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiviet, Jan F. & Kripfganz, Sebastian, 2021. "Instrument approval by the Sargan test and its consequences for coefficient estimation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:205:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521002123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109935
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2015. "Bootstrap Tests for Overidentification in Linear Regression Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-39, December.
    3. Kiviet Jan F., 2017. "Discriminating between (in)valid External Instruments and (in)valid Exclusion Restrictions," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, January.
    4. Kiviet, Jan F., 2020. "Testing the impossible: Identifying exclusion restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 294-316.
    5. Sebastian Kripfganz & Jan F. Kiviet, 2021. "kinkyreg: Instrument-free inference for linear regression models with endogenous regressors," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 21(3), pages 772-813, September.
    6. Bowsher, Clive G., 2002. "On testing overidentifying restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 211-220, October.
    7. Jan Kiviet & Milan Pleus & Rutger Poldermans, 2017. "Accuracy and Efficiency of Various GMM Inference Techniques in Dynamic Micro Panel Data Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-54, March.
    8. Parente, Paulo M.D.C. & Santos Silva, J.M.C., 2012. "A cautionary note on tests of overidentifying restrictions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 314-317.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Luqi Yuan & Shihong Zeng, 2023. "An Empirical Study on the Impact of Green Credit on Financial Performance of China’s Listed Banks," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(2), pages 1-5.
    2. Kiviet, Jan F., 2023. "Instrument-free inference under confined regressor endogeneity and mild regularity," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-22.
    3. Herbst, Chris M., 2024. "Effects of Center-Based Child Care on Disadvantaged Children: Evidence from a Randomized Research Design," IZA Discussion Papers 17430, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Fontana, Dario & Ardito, Chiara & Leombruni, Roberto & Strippoli, Elena & d’Errico, Angelo, 2024. "Does the time spent in retirement improve health? An IV-Poisson assessment on the incidence of cardiovascular diseases," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 354(C).
    5. mohammed, habib, 2023. "Modeling Determinants of Private Banks Profitability in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 116699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. mohammed, habib, 2023. "Modeling Determinants of Private Banks Profitability in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 116817, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogeneity testing; Instrument validity; Instrument weakness; Size control; Simulation; Test power;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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