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On the effects of macroprudential policies on Growth-at-Risk

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  • Franta, Michal
  • Gambacorta, Leonardo

Abstract

The Growth-at-Risk (GaR) measure for financial stability indicates how severe a recession could become in an extreme situation where future output growth falls into the 5th percentile of the distribution. In this letter, we estimate the effects of macroprudential policies on GaR by combining quantile regressions with local projections in a panel data setting. Our results indicate that the effect of macroprudential measures on GaR could be significant in the medium term. Tightening the loan-to-value limit narrows the whole GDP distribution, while doing the same to loan-loss provisions just moves the left tail of the distribution upward, reducing only the intensity of a potential crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Franta, Michal & Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2020. "On the effects of macroprudential policies on Growth-at-Risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:196:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520303074
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109501
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    Cited by:

    1. Maximilian Grimm & Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability," Working Paper Series 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Suarez, Javier, 2022. "Growth-at-risk and macroprudential policy design," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Eguren-Martin, Fernando & O'Neill, Cian & Sokol, Andrej & von dem Berge, Lukas, 2024. "Capital flows-at-risk: Push, pull and the role of policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Aikman, David & Bluwstein, Kristina & Karmakar, Sudipto, 2021. "A tail of three occasionally-binding constraints: a modelling approach to GDP-at-Risk," Bank of England working papers 931, Bank of England.
    5. Milan Szabo, 2020. "Growth-at-Risk: Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2020/3, Czech National Bank.
    6. Yang, Jin Young & Suh, Hyunduk, 2023. "Heterogeneous effects of macroprudential policies on firm leverage and value," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    7. Kitano, Shigeto & Zhou, Yang, 2022. "Effects of China’s capital controls on individual asset categories," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024. "Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
    9. Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín & Montañez-Enríquez, Ricardo & Ossandon Busch, Matias & Ramos-Francia, Manuel & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Sánchez-Martínez, Manuel, 2022. "Stress-ridden finance and growth losses: Does financial development break the link?," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    10. Mikhail I. Stolbov & Maria A. Shchepeleva & Alexander M. Karminsky, 2021. "A global perspective on macroprudential policy interaction with systemic risk, real economic activity, and monetary intervention," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    11. Fernández-Gallardo, Álvaro & Lloyd, Simon & Manuel, Ed, 2023. "The transmission of macroprudential policy in the tails: evidence from a narrative approach," Bank of England working papers 1027, Bank of England.
    12. Ćehajić, Aida & Košak, Marko, 2022. "Bank lending and small and medium-sized enterprises’ access to finance – Effects of macroprudential policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Ossandon Busch, Matias & Sánchez-Martínez, José Manuel & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Montañez-Enríquez, Ricardo & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín, 2022. "Growth at risk: Methodology and applications in an open-source platform," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).
    14. Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Ajevskis, Viktors & Brázdik, František & Garcia, Pablo & Gatt, William & Lima, Diana & Mavromatis, Kostas & Ortega, Eva & Papadopoulou, Niki & De Lorenzo, Ivan & Kolb, Benedikt, 2024. "Using structural models to understand macroeconomic tail risks," Occasional Paper Series 357, European Central Bank.
    15. Górajski, Mariusz & Kuchta, Zbigniew, 2023. "Coordination and non-coordination risks of monetary and macroprudential authorities: A robust welfare analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Philipp Roderweis & Jamel Saadaoui & Francisco Serranito, 2023. "The Unintended Consequences of ECB’s Asset Purchases. How Excess Reserves Shape Bank Lending," Working Papers of BETA 2023-34, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroprudential policy; Financial stability; Growth-at-Risk; Local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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