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Sovereign rating after private and official restructuring

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  • Marchesi, Silvia
  • Masi, Tania

Abstract

This paper studies the relationship between sovereign debt (final) restructuring and sovereign ratings, by distinguishing between commercial and official debt and by considering the creditors’ loss (haircut). Institutional Investor’s index is taken as a measure of a country’s creditworthiness. We find that while a restructuring with private creditors seems to involve some reputational costs, ”official defaulters” are not affected (or may even benefit) by the restructuring episodes. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we find further evidence for the heterogeneity of the economic impact of debt restructurings, confirming that official and private restructurings may have different costs and then induce selective defaults.

Suggested Citation

  • Marchesi, Silvia & Masi, Tania, 2020. "Sovereign rating after private and official restructuring," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:192:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520301348
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109178
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    1. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi, 2020. "The price of haircuts: private and official default," Development Working Papers 460, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 06 Feb 2020.
    2. Silvia Marchesi & Tania Masi & Pietro Bomprezzi, 2024. "Is to Forgive to Forget? Sovereign Risk in the Aftermath of Private or Official Debt Restructurings," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(1), pages 292-334, March.
    3. Marchesi, Silvia & Masi, Tania, 2021. "Life after default. Private and official deals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Silvia Marchesi & Giovanna Marcolongo, 2023. "Knockin' on H(e)aven's door. Financial crises and hidden wealth," Working Papers 518, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    5. Nada Azmy Elberry & Frank Naert & Stijn Goeminne, 2023. "Optimal public debt composition during debt crises: A review of theoretical literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 351-376, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign restructuring; Institutional investor; Synthetic control method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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