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Bitcoin risk modeling with blockchain graphs

Author

Listed:
  • Akcora, Cuneyt Gurcan
  • Dixon, Matthew F.
  • Gel, Yulia R.
  • Kantarcioglu, Murat

Abstract

A key challenge for Bitcoin cryptocurrency holders is managing FX risk. We identify certain sub-graphs (‘chainlets’) which exhibit predictive influence on Bitcoin price and volatility and characterize the types of chainlets that signify extreme losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Akcora, Cuneyt Gurcan & Dixon, Matthew F. & Gel, Yulia R. & Kantarcioglu, Murat, 2018. "Bitcoin risk modeling with blockchain graphs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 138-142.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:173:y:2018:i:c:p:138-142
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.07.039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pavel Ciaian & Miroslava Rajcaniova & d’Artis Kancs, 2016. "The economics of BitCoin price formation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1799-1815, April.
    2. Yhlas Sovbetov, 2018. "Factors Influencing Cryptocurrency Prices: Evidence from Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dash, Litcoin, and Monero," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 2(2), pages 1-27.
    3. Peter Gomber & Jascha-Alexander Koch & Michael Siering, 2017. "Digital Finance and FinTech: current research and future research directions," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 87(5), pages 537-580, July.
    4. Corbet, Shaen & Meegan, Andrew & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Exploring the dynamic relationships between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 28-34.
    5. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Bitcoin, gold and the dollar – A GARCH volatility analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 85-92.
    6. Jeffrey Chu & Stephen Chan & Saralees Nadarajah & Joerg Osterrieder, 2017. "GARCH Modelling of Cryptocurrencies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, October.
    7. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2018. "Bitcoin returns and transaction activity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 81-85.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    2. Xiao Fan Liu & Xin-Jian Jiang & Si-Hao Liu & Chi Kong Tse, 2020. "Knowledge Discovery in Cryptocurrency Transactions: A Survey," Papers 2010.01031, arXiv.org.
    3. Kurbucz, Marcell Tamás, 2019. "Predicting the price of Bitcoin by the most frequent edges of its transaction network," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    4. Matthew F. Dixon & Cuneyt Gurcan Akcora & Yulia R. Gel & Murat Kantarcioglu, 2019. "Blockchain analytics for intraday financial risk modeling," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 67-89, November.
    5. Thomas E. Koker & Dimitrios Koutmos, 2020. "Cryptocurrency Trading Using Machine Learning," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-7, August.
    6. Rico-Peña, Juan Jesús & Arguedas-Sanz, Raquel & López-Martin, Carmen, 2023. "Models used to characterise blockchain features. A systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    8. Yufang Wang & Haiyan Wang, 2020. "Using Networks and Partial Differential Equations to Predict Bitcoin Price," Papers 2001.03099, arXiv.org.
    9. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
    10. Apergis, Nicholas & Koutmos, Dimitrios & Payne, James E., 2021. "Convergence in cryptocurrency prices? the role of market microstructure," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    11. Samuel W. Akingbade & Marian Gidea & Matteo Manzi & Vahid Nateghi, 2023. "Why Topological Data Analysis Detects Financial Bubbles?," Papers 2304.06877, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrencies; Graph analysis; Forecasting; Financial risk; ICOs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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