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Accounting for the sources of macroeconomic tail risks

Author

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  • Atalay, Enghin
  • Drautzburg, Thorsten
  • Wang, Zhenting

Abstract

Using a multi-industry real business cycle model, we empirically examine the microeconomic origins of aggregate tail risks. Our model, estimated using industry-level data from 1972 to 2016, indicates that industry-specific shocks account for most of the third and fourth moments of GDP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Atalay, Enghin & Drautzburg, Thorsten & Wang, Zhenting, 2018. "Accounting for the sources of macroeconomic tail risks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 65-69.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:165:y:2018:i:c:p:65-69
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.01.032
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    2. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    3. Ellen R. McGrattan & James A. Schmitz, 1999. "Maintenance and repair: too big to ignore," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 23(Fall), pages 2-13.
    4. Vasco Cúrdia & Marco Del Negro & Daniel L. Greenwald, 2014. "Rare Shocks, Great Recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1031-1052, November.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    6. Enghin Atalay, 2017. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 254-280, October.
    7. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 2009. "Rare Disasters, Asset Prices, and Welfare Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," NBER Working Papers 25867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Andrew T. Foerster & Andreas Hornstein & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2022. "Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(12), pages 3286-3333.
    3. Yoshiyuki ARATA & Daisuke MIYAKAWA, 2021. "The Size of Micro-originated Aggregate Fluctuations: An analysis of firm-level input-output linkages in Japan," Discussion papers 21066, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    5. Michele Boldrin & Carlos Garriga & Adrian Peralta-Alva & Juan M. Sanchez, 2020. "Reconstructing the Great Recession," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(3), pages 271-311, July.
    6. Joris Tielens, 2019. "Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics," 2019 Meeting Papers 856, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Yoshiyuki ARATA, 2020. "The Role of Granularity in the Variance and Tail Probability of Aggregate Output," Discussion papers 20027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Frank Smets & Joris Tielens & Jan Van Hove, 2018. "Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics," Working Paper Research 351, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Ahn, Jungkyu & Ahn, Yongkil, 2023. "The tail risk surface," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    10. Dacic, Nikola & Melolinna, Marko, 2022. "The size-centrality relationship in production networks," Bank of England working papers 994, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Production networks; Business cycles; Tail risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D5 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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