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Asymmetric business cycles and sovereign default

Author

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  • Gordon, Grey
  • Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A.

Abstract

What accounts for asymmetric (negatively skewed) business cycles in emerging economies? We show the asymmetry is tied to default risk and that a sovereign default model delivers negative skew.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon, Grey & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2017. "Asymmetric business cycles and sovereign default," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 116-119.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:161:y:2017:i:c:p:116-119
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.09.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-2561, October.
    2. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    3. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2012. "A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 889-946.
    4. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2012. "Maturity, Indebtedness, and Default Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2674-2699, October.
    5. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    6. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    7. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A., 2020. "“Migration and sovereign default risk” a comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 23-27.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Skewness; Asymmetry; Business cycles; Default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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