Information rigidities in survey data: Evidence from dispersions in forecasts and forecast revisions
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.02.021
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris & Smets, Frank, 2009.
"Imperfect information and the business cycle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(S), pages 38-56.
- Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas & Frank Smets, 2009. "Imperfect Information and the Business Cycle," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2009-15, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
- Dellas, Harris & Smets, Frank & Collard, Fabrice, 2010. "Imperfect information and the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004.
"Disagreement about Inflation Expectations,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Augusto Marc Rocha Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm391, Yale School of Management.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2011, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo & Wolfers, Justin, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Research Papers 1807, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
- Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013.
"Inattentive professional forecasters,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
- Hervé Le Bihan & Philippe Andrade, 2010. "Inattentive Professional Forecasters," 2010 Meeting Papers 1144, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Andrade, P. & Le Bihan, H., 2010. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Working papers 307, Banque de France.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012.
"What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?," NBER Working Papers 14586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2010. "What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?," 2010 Meeting Papers 277, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002.
"Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Scholarly Articles 3415324, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015.
"Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," NBER Working Papers 16537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mr. Olivier Coibion & Mr. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/296, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," Working Papers 102, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982.
"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Executable program for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Web interface for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Guido Lorenzoni, 2009.
"A Theory of Demand Shocks,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
- Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2021. "Conditional macroeconomic forecasts: Disagreement, revisions and forecast errors," IWH Discussion Papers 7/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2023. "Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
- Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023.
"Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2024. "Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0754, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Hur, Joonyoung, 2018. "Time-varying information rigidities and fluctuations in professional forecasters' disagreement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 117-131.
- Shintani, Mototsugu & Ueda, Kozo, 2023.
"Identifying the source of information rigidities in the expectations formation process,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
- Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2021. "Identifying the source of information rigidities in the expectations formation process," CAMA Working Papers 2021-48, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2021. "Identifying the Source of Information Rigidities in the Expectations Formation Process," CARF F-Series CARF-F-516, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Hur, Joonyoung & Kim, Insu, 2017. "Inattentive agents and disagreement about economic activity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 175-190.
- Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2020. "High-frequency credit spread information and macroeconomic forecast revision," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 358-372.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
- Andrade, Philippe & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016.
"Fundamental disagreement,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 106-128.
- Philippe Andrade & Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2013. "Fundamental disagreement," Staff Reports 655, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- P. Andrade & R. Crump & S. Eusepi & E. Moench, 2014. "Fundamental disagreement," Working papers 524, Banque de France.
- Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023.
"Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2024. "Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0754, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Candia, Bernardo & Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2024.
"The inflation expectations of U.S. firms: Evidence from a new survey,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
- Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2021. "The Inflation Expectations of U.S. Firms: Evidence from a new survey," NBER Working Papers 28836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Candia, Bernardo, 2021. "The Inflation Expectations Of U.S. Firms: Evidence From A New Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 16161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Candia, Bernardo & Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2021. "The Inflation Expectations of U.S. Firms: Evidence from a New Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 14378, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Bernardo Candia & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2020. "Communication and the Beliefs of Economic Agents," NBER Working Papers 27800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hur, Joonyoung, 2018. "Time-varying information rigidities and fluctuations in professional forecasters' disagreement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 117-131.
- Guido Lorenzoni, 2009.
"A Theory of Demand Shocks,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
- Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefano Eusepi & Richard Crump & Emanuel Moench & Philippe Andrade, 2014. "Noisy Information and Fundamental Disagreement," 2014 Meeting Papers 797, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015.
"Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," NBER Working Papers 16537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mr. Olivier Coibion & Mr. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/296, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," Working Papers 102, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- Falck, Elisabeth & Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2017.
"Disagreement and monetary policy,"
Discussion Papers
29/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Elisabeth Falck & Mathias Hoffmann & Patrick Hürtgen, 2018. "Disagreement and Monetary Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 655, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Shintani, Mototsugu & Ueda, Kozo, 2023.
"Identifying the source of information rigidities in the expectations formation process,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
- Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2021. "Identifying the source of information rigidities in the expectations formation process," CAMA Working Papers 2021-48, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2021. "Identifying the Source of Information Rigidities in the Expectations Formation Process," CARF F-Series CARF-F-516, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Beckmann, Joscha & Reitz, Stefan, 2020.
"Information rigidities and exchange rate expectations,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
- Beckmann, Joscha & Reitz, Stefan, 2018. "Information Rigidities and Exchange Rate Expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181628, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2018.
"Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2477-2512, September.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge," NBER Working Papers 22785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2017. "Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge," 2017 Meeting Papers 89, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2018.
"How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2671-2713, September.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2015. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," NBER Working Papers 21092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar & Olivier Coibion, 2016. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," 2016 Meeting Papers 1340, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Chen, Cheng & Senga, Tatsuro & Sun, Chang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023.
"Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 60-77.
- CHEN Cheng & SENGA Tatsuro & SUN Chang & ZHANG Hongyong, 2018. "Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Expectation Formation over the Firm's Life Cycle," Discussion papers 18010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- Cheng Chen & Tatsuro Senga & Chang Sun & Hongyong Zhang, 2020. "Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Expectation Formation over the Firm's Life Cycle," CESifo Working Paper Series 8468, CESifo.
- Candian, Giacomo, 2019.
"Information frictions and real exchange rate dynamics,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 189-205.
- Giacomo Candian, 2016. "Information Frictions and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," EcoMod2016 9106, EcoMod.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012.
"What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?," NBER Working Papers 14586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2010. "What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?," 2010 Meeting Papers 277, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Zhao Han & Xiaohan Ma & Ruoyun Mao, 2023.
"The Role of Dispersed Information in Inflation and Inflation Expectations,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 72-106, April.
- Zhao Han & Xiaohan Ma & Ruoyun Mao, 2022. "Code and data files for "The Role of Dispersed Information in Inflation and Inflation Expectations"," Computer Codes 20-423, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- An, Zidong & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "Diligent forecasters can make accurate predictions despite disagreeing with the consensus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
More about this item
Keywords
Sticky information; Noisy information; Dispersion in forecasts; Forecast revision;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:142:y:2016:i:c:p:10-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.