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A simple proposal to improve the power of income convergence tests

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  • Silva Lopes, Artur

Abstract

I make a simple proposal to replace trend stationarity with level stationarity as the alternative hypothesis in unit root tests for income convergence. This replacement improves the power of the tests and is supported by a clear and well known definition of convergence. A small Monte Carlo study and an empirical example illustrate this improvement.

Suggested Citation

  • Silva Lopes, Artur, 2016. "A simple proposal to improve the power of income convergence tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 92-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:138:y:2016:i:c:p:92-95
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.11.041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hashem Pesaran, M., 2007. "A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 312-355, May.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Les Oxley & David Greasley, 1995. "A Time‐Series Perspective on Convergence: Australia, UK and USA since 1870," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(3), pages 259-270, September.
    4. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    5. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    6. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses, 2000. "Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 59-81.
    7. Perron, Pierre, 1988. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series : Further evidence from a new approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 297-332.
    8. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    9. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Unit Root Testing In Practice: Dealing With Uncertainty Over The Trend And Initial Condition," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 587-636, June.
    10. Chong, Terence Tai-Leung & Hinich, Melvin J. & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2008. "Time series test of nonlinear convergence and transitional dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 337-339, September.
    11. King, Alan & Ramlogan-Dobson, Carlyn, 2015. "Is Africa Actually Developing?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 598-613.
    12. repec:bla:ecorec:v:71:y:1995:i:214:p:259-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Li, Qing & Papell, David, 1999. "Convergence of international output Time series evidence for 16 OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 267-280, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Silva Lopes, Artur, 2024. "Assessing Income Convergence with a Long-Run Forecasting Approach: Some New Results," MPRA Paper 120143, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2022.
    2. Silva Lopes, Artur C., 2021. "Most likely you go your way (and I'll go mine): non-convergent incomes with a new DF-Fourier test," MPRA Paper 107676, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Mar 2021.
    3. Desli, Evangelia & Gkoulgkoutsika, Alexandra, 2021. "Economic convergence among the world’s top-income economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 841-853.
    4. Silva Lopes, Artur, 2020. "Revisiting income convergence with DF-Fourier tests: old evidence with a new test," MPRA Paper 102208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Eleni Kyriazakou & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "A nonlinear pairwise approach for the convergence of UK regional house prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 467-481, April.
    6. Silva Lopes, Artur, 2021. "Non-convergent incomes with a new DF-Fourier test: most likely you go your way (and I'll go mine)," MPRA Paper 120171, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Oct 2023.
    7. Diellza Kukaj, 2023. "Nominal and Real Convergence of European Union and Western Balkan Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(2), pages 69-84.
    8. repec:pra:mprapa:114488 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Income convergence; Unit root tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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