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Credit booms, financial fragility and banking crises

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  • Fielding, David
  • Rewilak, Johan

Abstract

Using a new country-level panel database, we explore effect of capital inflow surges, credit booms and financial fragility on the probability of banking crises. We find that booms increase the probability of a crisis only in relatively fragile financial systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Fielding, David & Rewilak, Johan, 2015. "Credit booms, financial fragility and banking crises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 233-236.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:136:y:2015:i:c:p:233-236
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.09.041
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    1. Svetlana Andrianova & Badi Baltagi & Thorsten Beck & Panicos Demetriades & David Fielding & Stephen Hall & Steven Koch & Robert Lensink & Johan Rewilak & Peter Rousseau, 2015. "A New International Database on Financial Fragility," Discussion Papers in Economics 15/18, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 9-62.
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    4. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    5. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    6. Laeven, Luc & Levine, Ross, 2009. "Bank governance, regulation and risk taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 259-275, August.
    7. Cihak, Martin & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Feyen, Erik & Levine, Ross, 2012. "Benchmarking financial systems around the world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6175, The World Bank.
    8. Jeffrey Frankel & Christopher Pissarides, 2009. "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran08-1.
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    2. Saktinil Roy & David M. Kemme, 2022. "Are capital inflow bonanzas a common precursor to banking crises? A categorical data analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3192-3223, October.
    3. Christopher Gandrud & Mark Hallerberg, 2015. "What is a Financial Crisis? Efficiently Measuring Real-Time Perceptions of Financial Market Stress with an Application to Financial Crisis Budget Cycles," CESifo Working Paper Series 5632, CESifo.
    4. Bouvatier, Vincent & El Ouardi, Sofiane, 2023. "Credit gaps as banking crisis predictors: A different tune for middle- and low-income countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    5. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
    6. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2022. "Financial spillovers, spillbacks, and the scope for international macroprudential policy coordination," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 79-127, February.
    7. Rachita Gulati & Nirmal Singh, 2019. "Analysing bank stability in India: Evidence from 2007/08-2016/17," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(6), pages 1-7.
    8. Demir, Müge & Önder, Zeynep, 2019. "Financial connectivity and excessive liquidity: Benefit or risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 203-221.
    9. Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022. "A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Mekki Hamdaoui & Saif Eddine Ayouni & Samir Maktouf, 2022. "Capital Account Liberalization, Political Stability, and Economic Growth," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 723-772, March.
    11. Eze Simpson Osuagwu & Wakeel Atanda Isola & Isaac Chii Nwaogwugwu, 2018. "Measuring Technical Efficiency and Productivity Change in the Nigerian Banking Sector: A Comparison of Non‐parametric and Parametric Techniques," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 30(4), pages 490-501, December.
    12. Osuagwu, Eze Simpson & Isola, Wakeel & Nwaogwugwu, Isaac, 2018. "Measuring Technical Efficiency and Productivity Change in the Nigerian Banking Sector: A Comparison of non-parametric DEA and parametric SFA," MPRA Paper 112948, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mirjana Jemović & Srđan Marinković, 2021. "Determinants of financial crises—An early warning system based on panel logit regression," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 103-117, January.
    14. Cantú, Carlos & Gondo, Rocio & Martínez, Berenice, 2019. "Reserve requirements as a financial stability instrument," Working Papers 2019-014, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    15. Feghali, Khalil & Mora, Nada & Nassif, Pamela, 2021. "Financial inclusion, bank market structure, and financial stability: International evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 236-257.
    16. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2020. "The run-up to the global financial crisis: A longer historical view of financial liberalization, capital inflows, and asset bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    17. Sule Yuksel Yigiter & Salim Sercan Sari, 2022. "Financial Fragility and Basic Economic Indicators in Turkey," Muhasebe Enstitusu Dergisi - Journal of Accounting Institute, Istanbul University Business School, vol. 0(67), pages 1-13, July.
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    19. Nirmal Singh, 2021. "Bank Stability and its Determinants in the Nepalese Banking Industry," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 33(1-2), pages 14-44, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panel data; Financial crises; Financial fragility; Credit booms; Capital surges;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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