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Bank default risk and carry trade profit

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  • Kim, Daehwan
  • Song, Chi-Young

Abstract

Currency carry trades–buying high-deposit-rate currencies and selling low-deposit-rate currencies–earn positive excess returns over time. The literature has heretofore explained this phenomenon based on currency differences. We examine the possibility that the bank default risk of destination countries contributes to positive carry trade profit. We measure the bank default risk of a country by averaging the distance to default–an option-pricing-based measure of default risk–of individual banks in that country. The average distance to default is strongly correlated both with deposit rate and with currency excess return. Also, “distance-to-default premium” explains a significant part of the time variation in carry trade profit.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Daehwan & Song, Chi-Young, 2015. "Bank default risk and carry trade profit," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 117-119.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:130:y:2015:i:c:p:117-119
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.03.018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," 2006 Meeting Papers 864, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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    6. Stephen Gilmore & Fumio Hayashi, 2011. "Emerging Market Currency Excess Returns," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 85-111, October.
    7. Arnaud Jobert & Ms. Janet Kong & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2004/033, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stefan Nagel & Lasse H. Pedersen, 2009. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 313-347, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Seungho Baek & Jeong Wan Lee & Kyong Joo Oh & Myoungji Lee, 2020. "Yield curve risks in currency carry forwards," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 651-670, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carry trade profit; Bank default risk; Distance to default;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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