IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v129y2015icp71-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Accounting for variability in the growth rate of income

Author

Listed:
  • Lambert, Peter J.
  • Yitzhaki, Shlomo

Abstract

The average of periodic growth rates is a downwardly biased estimator of the rate of growth of a country. The higher the variance of the periodical growth rates, the higher the downward bias. The longer the business cycle, the higher the downward bias. In this short paper, we demonstrate these facts on a number of different levels, from intuitive to quite technical. We suggest that the variability of growth rates be taken into account whenever a long term forecast is prepared.

Suggested Citation

  • Lambert, Peter J. & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 2015. "Accounting for variability in the growth rate of income," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 71-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:129:y:2015:i:c:p:71-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.02.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176515000579
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.02.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shlomo Yitzhaki & Peter Lambert, 2014. "Is higher variance necessarily bad for investment?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 855-860, November.
    2. Shlomo Yitzhaki, 1987. "The Relation between Return and Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(1), pages 77-95.
    3. Lambert, Peter J, 1984. "Non-equiproportionate Income Growth, Inequality, and the Income Tax," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , vol. 39(1), pages 104-118.
    4. Siddiq Osmani, 2005. "Defining pro-poor growth," One Pager 9, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    5. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2003. "Measuring pro-poor growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 93-99, January.
    6. B. Essama‐Nssah & Peter J. Lambert, 2009. "Measuring Pro‐Poorness: A Unifying Approach With New Results," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 752-778, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. B. Essama‐Nssah & Peter J. Lambert, 2009. "Measuring Pro‐Poorness: A Unifying Approach With New Results," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(3), pages 752-778, September.
    2. Essama-Nssah, B. & Bassole, Leandre, 2010. "A counterfactual analysis of the poverty impact of economic growth in Cameroon," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5249, The World Bank.
    3. Francisco Azpitarte, 2014. "Was Pro-Poor Economic Growth in Australia for the Income-Poor? And for the Multidimensionally-Poor?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 871-905, July.
    4. Thomas Groll & Peter J. Lambert, 2013. "The Pro-Poorness, Growth and Inequality Nexus: Some Findings From a Simulation Study," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(4), pages 776-784, December.
    5. Buhong Zheng, 2011. "Consistent comparison of pro-poor growth," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 37(1), pages 61-79, June.
    6. Ali Hashemi, 2016. "Measuring Pro-Poor Growth in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine," Working Papers 1008, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2016.
    7. Stephen P. Jenkins & Philippe Van Kerm, 2016. "Assessing Individual Income Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(332), pages 679-703, October.
    8. Flaviana Palmisano, 2018. "Evaluating Patterns of Income Growth when Status Matters: A Robust Approach," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(1), pages 147-169, March.
    9. Florent Bresson & Jean-Yves Duclos & Flaviana Palmisano, 2019. "Intertemporal pro-poorness," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 52(1), pages 65-96, January.
    10. Vito Peragine & Flaviana Palmisano & Paolo Brunori, 2014. "Economic Growth and Equality of Opportunity," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 28(2), pages 247-281.
    11. Flaviana Palmisano & Vito Peragine, 2015. "The Distributional Incidence of Growth: A Social Welfare Approach," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(3), pages 440-464, September.
    12. Hyacinth Eme Ichoku & Chukwuma Agu & John Ele-Ojo Ataguba, 2012. "What do we know about pro-poor growth and regional poverty in Nigeria?," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 5(3), pages 147-172, December.
    13. Sarkar, Sandip, 2014. "Pro poor growth : a partial ordering approach," MPRA Paper 55851, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jul 2013.
    14. Flaviana Palmisano & Dirk Van de gaer, 2016. "History-dependent growth incidence: a characterization and an application to the economic crisis in Italy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 585-603.
    15. Flaviana Palmisano, 2012. "The distributional incidence of growth: a non-anonymous and rank dependent approach," SERIES 0039, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Jul 2012.
    16. Palomino, Juan C. & Rodríguez, Juan G. & Sebastian, Raquel, 2020. "Wage inequality and poverty effects of lockdown and social distancing in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Raymundo M. Campos Vázquez & Luis A. Monroy-Gómez-Franco, 2016. "La relación entre crecimiento económico y pobreza en México," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2016-01, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    18. Liang Frank Shao & Melanie Krause, 2020. "Rising mean incomes for whom?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, December.
    19. Sugata Marjit & Anjan Mukherji & Sandip Sarkar, 2018. "Pareto Efficiency, Inequality and Distribution Neutral Fiscal Policy - An Overview," Discussion Papers Series 590, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    20. Abdelkrim Araar & Jean‐Yves Duclos & Mathieu Audet & Paul Makdissi, 2009. "Testing For Pro‐Poorness Of Growth, With An Application To Mexico," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(4), pages 853-881, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth rate; Individual incomes; Gross national product;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • B41 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology - - - Economic Methodology
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:129:y:2015:i:c:p:71-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.