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Does displaying probabilities affect bidding in first-price auctions?

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  • Ratan, Anmol

Abstract

“Overbidding” with respect to risk-neutral Nash predictions in first-price auction experiments has been consistently reported in the literature. One possible explanation for overbidding is that participants in these experiments do not have a clear perception of probabilities, which causes them to bid aggressively. We test whether displaying probabilities of winning produces systematic differences in bidding. In our design, previous auction outcomes are not revealed across treatments; no significant differences in behavior across treatments are obtained. Our results are in contrast to previous experiments, which suggest that displaying probabilities could reduce the extent of overbidding.

Suggested Citation

  • Ratan, Anmol, 2015. "Does displaying probabilities affect bidding in first-price auctions?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 119-121.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:126:y:2015:i:c:p:119-121
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.11.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ockenfels, Axel & Selten, Reinhard, 2005. "Impulse balance equilibrium and feedback in first price auctions," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 155-170, April.
    2. Vincent P. Crawford & Nagore Iriberri, 2007. "Level-k Auctions: Can a Nonequilibrium Model of Strategic Thinking Explain the Winner's Curse and Overbidding in Private-Value Auctions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1721-1770, November.
    3. Salo, Ahti A & Weber, Martin, 1995. "Ambiguity Aversion in First-Price Sealed-Bid Auctions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 123-137, September.
    4. Neugebauer, Tibor & Selten, Reinhard, 2006. "Individual behavior of first-price auctions: The importance of information feedback in computerized experimental markets," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 183-204, January.
    5. Robert Dorsey & Laura Razzolini, 2003. "Explaining Overbidding in First Price Auctions Using Controlled Lotteries," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 6(2), pages 123-140, October.
    6. Oliver Kirchkamp & J. Philipp Reiß, 2011. "Out‐Of‐Equilibrium Bids in First‐Price Auctions: Wrong Expectations or Wrong Bids," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(557), pages 1361-1397, December.
    7. Emel Filiz-Ozbay & Erkut Y. Ozbay, 2007. "Auctions with Anticipated Regret: Theory and Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(4), pages 1407-1418, September.
    8. Olivier Armantier & Nicolas Treich, 2009. "Subjective Probabilities In Games: An Application To The Overbidding Puzzle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1079-1102, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Achilleas Vassilopoulos & Andreas C. Drichoutis & Rodolfo M. Nayga, Jr, 2018. "Loss Aversion, Expectations and Anchoring in the BDM Mechanism," Working Papers 2018-1, Agricultural University of Athens, Department Of Agricultural Economics.
    2. Grundl, Serafin & Zhu, Yu, 2023. "Robust inference in first-price auctions: Overbidding as an identifying restriction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 484-506.
    3. Serafin J. Grundl & Yu Zhu, 2019. "Robust Inference in First-Price Auctions : Experimental Findings as Identifying Restrictions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Haruvy, Ernan & Heinrich, Timo & Walker, Matthew J., 2022. "Separating probability weighting and risk aversion in first-price auctions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Auction; Probability weighting; Perceptual errors; Ambiguity; Laboratory experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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