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Government debt in the euro area—Evidence from dynamic factor analysis

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  • Pan, Huiran
  • Wang, Chun

Abstract

This paper shows that an unobserved common factor drives the co-movement of government debt in the euro area. The old-age dependency ratio explains the factor after controlling for the Maastricht Treaty, the adoption of the euro, and the ongoing crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Pan, Huiran & Wang, Chun, 2012. "Government debt in the euro area—Evidence from dynamic factor analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 272-275.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:2:p:272-275
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2011.12.084
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2010. "The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth: an empirical investigation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1237, European Central Bank.
    2. Norrbin, Stefan C. & Schlagenhauf, Don E., 1996. "The role of international factors in the business cycle: A multi-country study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 85-104, February.
    3. Albanese, Giuseppe & Modica, Salvatore, 2010. "Co-movement of public spending in the G7," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 121-123, November.
    4. Mario Crucini & Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok, 2011. "What are the driving forces of international business cycles?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 156-175, January.
    5. Crucini, Mario J, 1997. "Country Size and Economic Fluctuations," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 204-220, May.
    6. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2018. "Sustainability and comovement of government debt in EMU Countries: A panel data analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(1), pages 189-202, July.
    2. Cosimo Magazzino & Marco Mele, 2022. "A Dynamic Factor and Neural Networks Analysis of the Co-movement of Public Revenues in the EMU," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 289-338, July.
    3. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "What can wavelets unveil about the vulnerabilities of monetary integration? A tale of Eurozone stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 981-996.
    4. Akira Kamiguchi & Toshiki Tamai, 2017. "Public Investment and Golden Rule of Public Finance in an Overlapping Generations Model," KIER Working Papers 971, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Ginanjar Dewandaru & Rumi Masih & Mansur Masih, 2018. "Unraveling the Financial Contagion in European Stock Markets During Financial Crises: Multi-Timescale Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 859-880, March.
    6. Rancan, Michela & Cariboni, Jessica & Keasey, Kevin & Vallascas, Francesco, 2023. "Bond issuance and the funding choices of European banks: The consequences of public debt," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Aleksandras Vytautas Rutkauskas & Viktorija Stasytytė & Nijolė Maknickienė, 2014. "Government debt as the integral portfolio of assets and liabilities generated by debt," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 22-40, February.
    8. Kamiguchi, Akira & Tamai, Toshiki, 2019. "Public investment, public debt, and population aging under the golden rule of public finance," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 110-122.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government debt; Dynamic factor model; Old-age dependency ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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