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A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China

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  • Wen, Zongguo
  • Chen, Jining

Abstract

Currently, traditional development issues such as income inequality, depletion of natural resources, environmental pollution as well as retardation of infrastructure have occurred in China. In the future, more pressures would be imposed on China by the continuous fast development of industrialization, and with transfer of the world manufacture center to China. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decisionmakers. This paper develops a methodology on cost benefit analysis of economic growth at macroscopic level to identify issues of China's sustainability. In order to address some important issues on how to make policies to improve the quality of economic growth, the CBA framework developed in this study analyses economic-ecological-social interaction, building three accounts that reflect three dimensions of sustainable development that includes 26 sub-models in all, and finally is integrated into an index as Net Progress Proceeds (NPP). The estimation methods of these submodels, such as cost of environmental pollution, depletion of natural resources and defensive expenditures are described in detail. Based on the framework and methods, this paper examines the costs and benefits of economic growth in three aspects of economy, ecology and society. The results illustrate that NPR of China's economic growth had been negative for a long time and has just became positive since year 2000 but was quite low. Even the best was only 1.6% in 2002 (the worst was -Â 24.2% in 1982). Based on the comparison between three accounts, we can draw a conclusion that ecological cost is the dominant factor that affects China's NPR. The empirical results show that if no other innovative measures or policies are taken in the future the costs of growth would outweigh its benefits, resulting in un-sustainability. Basically, the long-term economic growth would be unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage and depletion of natural resources. There are a few limitations that we consider need to be improved in our CBA framework and method, nevertheless they have many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable.

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  • Wen, Zongguo & Chen, Jining, 2008. "A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 356-366, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:65:y:2008:i:2:p:356-366
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    2. Luca D’Acci, 2014. "Monetary, Subjective and Quantitative Approaches to Assess Urban Quality of Life and Pleasantness in Cities (Hedonic Price, Willingness-to-Pay, Positional Value, Life Satisfaction, Isobenefit Lines)," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 115(2), pages 531-559, January.
    3. Chen, Yvonne Jie & Li, Pei & Lu, Yi, 2018. "Career concerns and multitasking local bureaucrats: Evidence of a target-based performance evaluation system in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 84-101.
    4. Li Fang & Pan He & Chuanhao Tian & Yao Yao & Hongjie Chen, 2022. "Beyond the ceremony: Mega-event, air quality and political career," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(2), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Yuanquan Chen, 2008. "Chinese Economy and Excess Liquidity," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(5), pages 63-82, September.
    6. Halkos, George & Tzeremes, Nickolaos, 2011. "Economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions: Empirical evidence from China," MPRA Paper 32840, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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