Why and when do reserves estimates in mining change and innovations take place?

This commentary is a practice expert essay based on review of scientific papers on phosphorus scarcity that provides a resumé of arguments relating to adequacy of phosphate rock (PR) resources to supply future requirements and an explanation as to why, although we cannot know how much will be available in future, we can say that the static lifetime is much more likely to be of the order of hundreds or even thousands of years rather than decades. Once the knowable facts are established, a case can be made for moving towards increased phosphate recycling and loss-reduction, based on the current inefficient use and the consequential harm done to the environment. Whilst these concerns are understandable, given that phosphate resources are finite and unsubstitutable, it is important to derive a true perspective in order that the most efficient use of financial and human resources can be deployed by governments. An assertion in 2010 that phosphorus mining would begin to be resource-constrained within decades proved false, but continues to be referred to by those advocating resource governance. Such assertions, when proved not to be accurate, run the risk of validating a ‘cornucopian’ view of mineral resource adequacy and diminish the tenets of ecological economics which, among other things, prescribe a move towards a circular economy, by cutting losses in the supply chain and increasing recycling. The phosphate supply industry has generally been less concerned about potential resource constrains than the academic community. It is true that, apart from a few larger state-owned producers, this lack of concern partly results from the industry's shorter-term economically-driven perspective which tends towards the cornucopian view. This short-term perspective of the commercial industry is at odds with the long-term mitigation of the impacts of mining that is a feature of ecological economics. In the phosphate industry mining and chemical processing has certainly led to major negative environmental legacies and impacts being deferred to future generations.