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The Transition to a Sustainable Prosperity-A Stock-Flow-Consistent Ecological Macroeconomic Model for Canada

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  • Jackson, Tim
  • Victor, Peter A.

Abstract

This paper presents a stock-flow consistent (SFC) macroeconomic simulation model for Canada. We use the model to generate three very different stories about the future of the Canadian economy, covering the half century from 2017 to 2067: a Base Case Scenario in which current trends and relationships are projected into the future, a Carbon Reduction Scenario in which measures are introduced specifically designed to reduce Canada's carbon emissions, and a Sustainable Prosperity Scenario which incorporates additional measures to improve environmental, social and financial conditions across society. The performance of the economy is tracked using two composite indicators constructed especially for this study: an environmental burden index (EBI) which describes the environmental performance of the model; and a composite sustainable prosperity index (SPI) which is based on a weighted average of seven economic, social and environmental performance indicators. Contrary to the widely accepted view, the results suggest that ‘green growth’ (in the Carbon Reduction Scenario) may be slower than ‘brown growth’. More importantly, we show (in the Sustainable Prosperity Scenario) that improved environmental and social outcomes are possible even as the growth rate declines to zero.

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  • Jackson, Tim & Victor, Peter A., 2020. "The Transition to a Sustainable Prosperity-A Stock-Flow-Consistent Ecological Macroeconomic Model for Canada," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:177:y:2020:i:c:s0921800920301427
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106787
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    1. Dafermos, Yannis & Nikolaidi, Maria & Galanis, Giorgos, 2017. "A stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 191-207.
    2. Kubiszewski, Ida & Costanza, Robert & Franco, Carol & Lawn, Philip & Talberth, John & Jackson, Tim & Aylmer, Camille, 2013. "Beyond GDP: Measuring and achieving global genuine progress," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 57-68.
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    6. Tim Jackson, 2019. "Managing without growth: exploring possibilities," Chapters, in: Managing without Growth, Second Edition, chapter 11, pages 271-303, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    8. Hardt, Lukas & O'Neill, Daniel W., 2017. "Ecological Macroeconomic Models: Assessing Current Developments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 198-211.
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    19. Gabriel Porcile, 2024. "Sustainable development in a center-periphery model," LEM Papers Series 2024/10, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    20. Gerold, Stefanie & Hoffmann, Maja & Aigner, Ernest, 2023. "Towards a critical understanding of work in ecological economics: A postwork perspective," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
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