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An Agent-based Model of the South African Offshore Hake Trawl Industry: Part I Model Description and Validation

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  • Cooper, Rachel
  • Jarre, Astrid

Abstract

The most valuable component in South Africa's fishing industry is its hake fishery, which targets two species, the shallow-water (Merluccius capensis) and deep-water (M. paradoxus) Cape hakes. Modelling provides a means to assist in understanding the dynamics of the economic system of this fishery and identify potential links to the ecological system in future, which can inform management. This study develops and describes a novel agent-based model of the South African offshore hake trawl industry, HakeSim, which captures drivers such as fuel price, catch per unit effort, export markets, exchange rate, industrial organization and uncertainty in catches as a proxy for environmental uncertainty. It allows identification of key drivers and their relative importance to the industry to be assessed. It has desirable and realistic sensitivities and it can successfully reproduce profitability scenarios for the industry under different fuel prices. Fuel prices above ZAR18.783 per litre, which could result from increased prices or reduced subsidies, are demonstrated to push the modelled fishing companies to making losses, which could potentially reduce employment. This model represents a strategic tool for management and significant advancements over existing bio-economic and agent-based models of fisheries.

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  • Cooper, Rachel & Jarre, Astrid, 2017. "An Agent-based Model of the South African Offshore Hake Trawl Industry: Part I Model Description and Validation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 268-281.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:142:y:2017:i:c:p:268-281
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.06.026
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    2. Zantsi, Siphe & Mack, Gabriele & Möhring, Anke & Cloete, Kandas & Greyling, Jan C & Mann, Stefan, 2024. "How can South Africa’s land redistribution succeed? An agent-based modelling approach for assessing structural and economic impacts," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344233, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    3. Cooper, Rachel & Jarre, Astrid, 2017. "An Agent-based Model of the South African Offshore Hake Trawl Industry: Part II Drivers and Trade-offs in Profit and Risk," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 257-267.
    4. Davide Settembre-Blundo & Rocío González-Sánchez & Sonia Medina-Salgado & Fernando E. García-Muiña, 2021. "Flexibility and Resilience in Corporate Decision Making: A New Sustainability-Based Risk Management System in Uncertain Times," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 22(2), pages 107-132, December.

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