IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v74y2024ics1062940824001657.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Geopolitical risk hedging or timing: Evidence from hedge fund strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, Tianyi
  • Zhou, Xuting

Abstract

An increasing number of investors are concerned about how they can diversify risks and profits amid surging geopolitical uncertainties. Using a geopolitical risk timing/hedging model, we investigate whether hedge fund managers can effectively hedge or time geopolitical risks by adopting different trading strategies. We find that excluding those in the global macro category, hedge funds with higher minimum investments and management fees exhibit greater success in hedging geopolitical risks. Meanwhile, global macro hedge funds, which have longer lockup periods, are more adept at timing geopolitical risks by increasing their market exposures. Furthermore, hedge funds which are the top geopolitical risk hedgers and timers demonstrate higher economic value than those in the bottom group over the subsequent one and three months. Our findings provide valuable insights into private investors’ selection of hedge funds during periods of heightened geopolitical risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Tianyi & Zhou, Xuting, 2024. "Geopolitical risk hedging or timing: Evidence from hedge fund strategies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:74:y:2024:i:c:s1062940824001657
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2024.102240
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940824001657
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2024.102240?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    2. Liu, Xi & Zhang, Xueyong, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and currency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    3. Kamal, Md Rajib & Ahmed, Shaker & Hasan, Mostafa Monzur, 2023. "The impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the stock market: Evidence from Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    4. Ma, Tianyi & Li, Baibing & Tee, Kai-Hong, 2022. "Mispricing chasing and hedge fund returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 34-49.
    5. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2006. "Large shocks and the September 11th terrorist attacks on international stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 683-698, July.
    6. Kouwenberg, Roy & Ziemba, William T., 2007. "Incentives and risk taking in hedge funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3291-3310, November.
    7. Marie-Anne Cam, 2008. "The Impact Of Terrorism On United States Industries," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 27(2), pages 115-134, June.
    8. Sun, Zheng & Wang, Ashley W. & Zheng, Lu, 2018. "Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(5), pages 2199-2225, October.
    9. Kannadhasan, M. & Das, Debojyoti, 2020. "Do Asian emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk alike? A quantile regression approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    10. Zhou, Haonan & Lu, Xinjie, 2023. "Investor attention on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and stock market volatility: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Martins, António Miguel & Correia, Pedro & Gouveia, Ricardo, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict: The effect on European banks’ stock market returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Admati, Anat R, et al, 1986. "On Timing and Selectivity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 715-730, July.
    13. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2014. "Macroeconomic risk and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-19.
    14. Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 102-127, February.
    15. Khoo, Joye & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong), 2021. "Does geopolitical uncertainty affect corporate financing? Evidence from MIDAS regression," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    16. Wu, Feng-lin & Zhan, Xu-dong & Zhou, Jia-qi & Wang, Ming-hui, 2023. "Stock market volatility and Russia–Ukraine conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    17. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2019. "Effects of the geopolitical risks on Bitcoin returns and volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 511-518.
    18. Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Demir, Ender & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Hedging Geopolitical Risks with Different Asset Classes: A Focus on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    19. Li, Chenlu & Li, Baibing & Tee, Kai-Hong, 2020. "Are hedge funds active market liquidity timers?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    20. Cao, Charles & Chen, Yong & Liang, Bing & Lo, Andrew W., 2013. "Can hedge funds time market liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 493-516.
    21. Chen, Yong & Liang, Bing, 2007. "Do Market Timing Hedge Funds Time the Market?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 827-856, December.
    22. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and bank stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    23. Tianyi Ma & Kai-Hong Tee & Baibing Li, 2023. "On hedge fund inceptions in a competitive market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(17), pages 1975-2000, November.
    24. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2020. "Do natural disasters and geopolitical risks matter for cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    25. Bing Liang, 1999. "On the Performance of Hedge Funds," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 72-85, July.
    26. Michael W. Brandt & Federico Nucera & Giorgio Valente, 2019. "Can Hedge Funds Time the Market?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 459-469, June.
    27. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-341.
    28. Zheng, Yao & Osmer, Eric & Zhang, Ruiyi, 2018. "Sentiment hedging: How hedge funds adjust their exposure to market sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 147-160.
    29. Baur, Dirk G. & Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Hedging geopolitical risk with precious metals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    30. Engle, Robert F. & Campos-Martins, Susana, 2023. "What are the events that shake our world? Measuring and hedging global COVOL," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 221-242.
    31. Osinga, Albert Jakob & Schauten, Marc B.J. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2021. "Timing is money: The factor timing ability of hedge fund managers," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 266-281.
    32. Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Lasisi, Lukman & Olaniran, Abeeb, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility in emerging markets: A GARCH – MIDAS approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    33. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Demir, Ender & Long, Huaigang, 2022. "When bad news is good news: Geopolitical risk and the cross-section of emerging market stock returns," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    34. Stafylas, Dimitrios & Andrikopoulos, Athanasios, 2020. "Determinants of hedge fund performance during ‘good’ and ‘bad’ economic periods," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    35. Melvyn Teo, 2009. "The Geography of Hedge Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3531-3561, September.
    36. William Fung & David A. Hsieh, 2004. "Hedge Fund Benchmarks: A Risk-Based Approach," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(5), pages 65-80, September.
    37. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Li, Yong-Yi, 2021. "Oil price shocks, geopolitical risks, and green bond market dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    38. Umar, Zaghum & Bossman, Ahmed & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter for global asset returns? Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Malakhov, Alexey & Riley, Timothy B. & Yan, Qing, 2024. "Do hedge funds bet against beta?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1507-1525.
    2. Salachas, Evangelos & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Laopodis, Nikiforos T. & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2024. "Stock market spillovers of global risks and hedging opportunities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Niu, Zibo & Wang, Chenlu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility with various geopolitical risks categories: New evidence from machine learning models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and stock prices," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Demir, Ender & Zaremba, Adam, 2022. "Hedging Geopolitical Risks with Different Asset Classes: A Focus on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Ma, Tianyi & Li, Baibing & Tee, Kai-Hong, 2022. "Mispricing chasing and hedge fund returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 34-49.
    7. Long, Huaigang & Demir, Ender & Będowska-Sójka, Barbara & Zaremba, Adam & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2022. "Is geopolitical risk priced in the cross-section of cryptocurrency returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. El Kalak, Izidin & Azevedo, Alcino & Hudson, Robert, 2016. "Reviewing the hedge funds literature I: Hedge funds and hedge funds' managerial characteristics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 85-97.
    9. Liu, Xi & Zhang, Xueyong, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and currency returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    10. Agarwal, Vikas & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2017. "Tail risk in hedge funds: A unique view from portfolio holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 610-636.
    11. Ma, Tianyi & Tee, Kai-Hong & Li, Baibing, 2022. "Timing the volatility risk of beta anomaly: Evidence from hedge fund strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Klein, Tony, 2024. "Investor behavior in times of conflict: A natural experiment on the interplay of geopolitical risk and defense stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 294-313.
    13. Hossain, Ashrafee T. & Masum, Abdullah-Al & Saadi, Samir, 2024. "The impact of geopolitical risks on foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the Russia–Ukraine war," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    14. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    15. Evrim Mandaci, Pınar & Azimli, Asil & Mandaci, Nazif, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risks on connectedness among natural resource commodities: A quantile vector autoregressive approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    16. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikolaos Voukelatos, 2022. "Should hedge funds deviate from the benchmark?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 767-795, September.
    17. Yong Chen & Bing Han & Jing Pan, 2021. "Sentiment Trading and Hedge Fund Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 2001-2033, August.
    18. Jung‐Soon Shin & Minki Kim & Dongjun Oh & Tong Suk Kim, 2019. "Do hedge funds time market tail risk? Evidence from option‐implied tail risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 205-237, February.
    19. Zheng, Yao & Osmer, Eric & Zhang, Ruiyi, 2018. "Sentiment hedging: How hedge funds adjust their exposure to market sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 147-160.
    20. Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai, 2013. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 597-635, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitical risk; Hedge funds; Market timing ability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:74:y:2024:i:c:s1062940824001657. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.