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Liquidity indicators, early warning signals in banks, and financial crises

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  • Chen, Ting-Hsuan
  • Lee, Chien-Chiang
  • Shen, Chung-Hua

Abstract

This research compares the performance of three liquidity indicators, namely liquidity ratio (LiqR), liquidity creation (LiqC) and net stable funding difference (NSFD), for sending early warning signals for distressed banks. Recent evidence has shown that LiqR appears incapable of measuring the liquidity condition of banks. However, LiqC and NSFD have not yet been fully examined. Thus, which indicator is more useful in an early warning model becomes an interesting issue. We classify distressed banks as banks that have experienced a bank run, bailout, or failure. Sample data are collected from the United States and the European Union from before and after the financial crisis. We then estimate model predictive value using the sample before the crisis to predict liquidity shortages. Evidence shows that the academic (LiqC) and officially recommended indicators (NSFD) outperform LiqR as early warning signals. Furthermore, LiqC performs best when banks actively engage in income diversification but not fund diversification. Therefore, a well income-diversified bank with high LiqC tends to have high distress probability in the next period.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Ting-Hsuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2022. "Liquidity indicators, early warning signals in banks, and financial crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:62:y:2022:i:c:s1062940822000821
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2022.101732
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity indicators; Early warning signal; Banks; Financial crisis; Distress probability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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