IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v58y2021ics1062940821001571.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the reversal of investor sentiment

Author

Listed:
  • Ding, Cherng G.
  • Wang, Hung-Jui
  • Lee, Meng-Che
  • Hung, Wen-Chi
  • Jane, Ten-Der

Abstract

Assessing the reversal of sentiment in stock markets is needed because, according to the social mood cycle, the change of social mood over time is an antecedent of price movements. The purpose of this study is to empirically assess reversal of investor sentiment, to show the phases of social mood cycle from increasing mood to decreasing mood, and to explain the dynamic change in market inefficiency from increasing to decreasing. Growth modeling, developed particularly for dealing with the change over time, is used in this study for assessing the reversal of investor sentiment. The autocovariance structure of errors and the variances/covariances of the random coefficients are all taken into account in the model. The results have indicated that the change in investor sentiment over time is inverted U-shaped for the entire market. Moreover, arbitrage constraint and stock characteristics exert a joint moderating effect on sentiment reversal. Less arbitrage constraint can strengthen sentiment reversal only when the market for individual stocks is dominated by noise traders. Based on the results obtained, we discuss asset pricing, liquidity management, and market intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding, Cherng G. & Wang, Hung-Jui & Lee, Meng-Che & Hung, Wen-Chi & Jane, Ten-Der, 2021. "Assessing the reversal of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821001571
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101547
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940821001571
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2021.101547?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cherng Ding & Hung-Jui Wang & Meng-Che Lee & Wen-Chi Hung & Chieh-Peng Lin, 2014. "How Does the Change in Investor Sentiment over Time Affect Stock Returns?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(S2), pages 144-158.
    2. Summers, L.H. & Summers, V.P., 1989. "When Financial Markets Work Too Well : A Cautious Case For A Securities Transactions Tax," Papers t12, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    3. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
    4. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    5. John R. Conlon, 2004. "Simple Finite Horizon Bubbles Robust to Higher Order Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 927-936, May.
    6. Michael J. Cooper & Orlin Dimitrov & P. Raghavendra Rau, 2001. "A Rose.com by Any Other Name," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2371-2388, December.
    7. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    8. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    9. Ding, Cherng G. & Hung, Wen-Chi & Lee, Meng-Che & Wang, Hung-Jui, 2017. "Exploring paper characteristics that facilitate the knowledge flow from science to technology," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 244-256.
    10. Allen F. & Morris S. & Postlewaite A., 1993. "Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 206-229, December.
    11. John R. Conlon, 2015. "Should Central Banks Burst Bubbles? Some Microeconomic Issues," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(582), pages 141-161, February.
    12. Yu-Jane Liu & Chih-Hsien Yu, 2002. "On the Effect of Stock Stabilization Fund: A Case of Taiwan," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 93-109.
    13. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Speculative Prices and Popular Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 55-65, Spring.
    14. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
    15. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    17. Robert B. Durand & Manapon Limkriangkrai & Daniel Chai & David Gallagher, 2016. "The Australian asset-pricing debate," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 56(2), pages 393-421, June.
    18. Liu, Feng & Conlon, John R., 2018. "The simplest rational greater-fool bubble model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 38-57.
    19. Jason Greene & Scott Smart, 1999. "Liquidity Provision and Noise Trading: Evidence from the “Investment Dartboard” Column," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1885-1899, October.
    20. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2003. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1113-1137, June.
    21. Cécile Bastidon & Nicolas Huchet & Yusuf Kocoglu, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Eurozone: A Lack of Forward Guidance?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 76-97, January.
    22. Dorn, Daniel, 2009. "Does Sentiment Drive the Retail Demand for IPOs?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 85-108, February.
    23. Kostopoulos, Dimitrios & Meyer, Steffen, 2018. "Disentangling investor sentiment: Mood and household attitudes towards the economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 28-78.
    24. Liu, Weimin, 2006. "A liquidity-augmented capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 631-671, December.
    25. Cherng G. Ding & Hung-Jui Wang & Meng-Che Lee & Wen-Chi Hung & Chieh-Peng Lin, 2014. "How Does the Change in Investor Sentiment over Time Affect Stock Returns?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2S), pages 144-158, March.
    26. Chuang, Wen-I & Lee, Hsiu-Chuan, 2010. "The Impact of Short-Sales Constraints on Liquidity and the Liquidity-Return Relations," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 521-535, November.
    27. Zhang, Mu & Zheng, Jie, 2017. "A robust reference-dependent model for speculative bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 232-258.
    28. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    29. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:3:p:1113-1138 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    31. Berkman, Henk & Eleswarapu, Venkat R., 1998. "Short-term traders and liquidity: a test using Bombay Stock Exchange data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 339-355, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Szymon Lis, 2022. "Investor Sentiment in Asset Pricing Models: A Review," Working Papers 2022-14, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    2. Li, Jinfang, 2017. "Investor sentiment, heterogeneous agents and asset pricing model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 504-512.
    3. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2013. "Understanding Asset Prices," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    4. Zhang, Chris H. & Frijns, Bart, 2019. "Noise trading and informational efficiency," EconStor Preprints 198037, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    5. Alexander S. Sangare, 2005. "Efficience des marchés : un siècle après Bachelier," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 81(4), pages 107-132.
    6. Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Chi-Hsiou & Yeh, Chung-Ying, 2012. "When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-240.
    7. Wang, Wenzhao & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Institutional investor sentiment and the mean-variance relationship: Global evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 415-441.
    8. Zhang, Mu & Zheng, Jie, 2017. "A robust reference-dependent model for speculative bubbles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 232-258.
    9. Chen, Haozhi & Zhang, Yue, 2023. "Research on the effect of firm-specific investor sentiment on the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly: Evidence from the Chinese market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "Global, local, and contagious investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 272-287.
    11. Di, Li & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich, 2021. "The power of investor sentiment in explaining bank stock performance: Listed conventional vs. Islamic banks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Feng Liu & Joseph S. White & John R. Conlon, 2023. "A Three‐State Rational Greater‐Fool Bubble Model With Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1565-1594, November.
    13. Mahmoudi, Nader & Docherty, Paul & Melia, Adrian, 2022. "Firm-level investor sentiment and corporate announcement returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    14. Xiong, Xiong & Meng, Yongqiang & Joseph, Nathan Lael & Shen, Dehua, 2020. "Stock mispricing, hard-to-value stocks and the influence of internet stock message boards," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    15. Wan, Junmin, 2024. "Transmission of housing bubbles among industrial sectors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 692-701.
    16. David Hirshleife, 2015. "Behavioral Finance," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 133-159, December.
    17. Cars Hommes & Florian Wagener, 2008. "Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-054/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Guofu Zhou, 2018. "Measuring Investor Sentiment," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 239-259, November.
    19. repec:men:wpaper:57_2015 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Li, Yubin & Zhao, Chen & Zhong, Zhaodong (Ken), 2021. "Trading behavior of retail investors in derivatives markets: Evidence from Mini options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    21. Nerissa C. Brown & Theodore E. Christensen & W. Brooke Elliott & Richard D. Mergenthaler, 2012. "Investor Sentiment and Pro Forma Earnings Disclosures," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 1-40, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reversal of investor sentiment; Social mood cycle; Growth modeling; Market liquidity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821001571. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.