IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v52y2020ics1062940819300609.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probability of default in collateralized credit operations for small business

Author

Listed:
  • Carvalho, Jaimilton
  • Orrillo, Jaime
  • da Silva, Fernanda Rocha Gomes

Abstract

The paper examines how the collateral affects the probability of default for small firms. We present a stylized theoretical model to derive the relationship between the level of collateral and subsequent loan default. We find that the probability of default is negatively correlated with the level of collateral, which is intuitive. Subsequently, we test this relationship by using a proprietary database of collateralized loans of small Brazilian enterprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Carvalho, Jaimilton & Orrillo, Jaime & da Silva, Fernanda Rocha Gomes, 2020. "Probability of default in collateralized credit operations for small business," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:52:y:2020:i:c:s1062940819300609
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2019.101129
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940819300609
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2019.101129?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Geanakoplos & William Zame, 2014. "Collateral equilibrium, I: a basic framework," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 56(3), pages 443-492, August.
    2. Jacques Drèze & Enrico Minelli & Mario Tirelli, 2008. "Production and financial policies under asymmetric information," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 35(2), pages 217-231, May.
    3. Aloísio Araújo & Susan Schommer & Michael Woodford, 2015. "Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy with Endogenous Collateral Constraints," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 1-43, January.
    4. Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007. "Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures," Working Papers 07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    5. Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2009. "The probability approach to general equilibrium with production," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 39(1), pages 1-41, April.
    6. Divino, Jose Angelo & Rocha, Líneke Clementino Sleegers, 2013. "Probability of default in collateralized credit operations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 276-292.
    7. Jose Angelo Divino & Edna Souza Lima & Jaime Orrillo, 2013. "Interest rates and default in unsecured loan markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 1925-1934, December.
    8. M. Peiris & Alexandros Vardoulakis, 2013. "Savings and default," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 54(1), pages 153-180, September.
    9. Niels Bosma & Mirjam van Praag & Roy Thurik & Gerrit de Wit, 2004. "The Value of Human and Social Capital Investments for the Business Performance of Startups," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 227-236, October.
    10. Ucbasaran, Deniz & Westhead, Paul & Wright, Mike, 2009. "The extent and nature of opportunity identification by experienced entrepreneurs," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 99-115, March.
    11. Guido Ruta & Piero Gottardi, 2009. "Equilibrium corporate finance," 2009 Meeting Papers 149, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Paul Hofmarcher & Stefan Kerbl & Bettina Grün & Michael Sigmund & Kurt Hornik, 2014. "Model uncertainty and aggregated default probabilities: new evidence from Austria," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(8), pages 871-879, March.
    13. Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2008. "Summary of \"subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures\"," Proceedings 1091, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    14. Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Jaime Orrillo, 2016. "Production and Endogenous Bankruptcy under Collateral Constraints," Studies in Economics 1610, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    15. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 27(Q I), pages 21-31.
    16. Wilfredo L. Maldonado & Jaime Orrillo, 2007. "Collateral or utility penalties?," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 3(2), pages 95-111, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cuesta, Lizeth, 2020. "Efecto del crecimiento demográfico en la deuda externa. Estudio para países sudamericanos usando un análisis de cointegración [Effect of population growth on external debt. Study for South American," MPRA Paper 111041, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Apr 2021.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. León-Ledesma, Miguel & Orrillo, Jaime, 2021. "Production, bankruptcy, and financial policies under collateral constraints," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 109-119.
    2. Miguel Leon-Ledesma & Jaime Orrillo, 2016. "Production and Endogenous Bankruptcy under Collateral Constraints," Studies in Economics 1610, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    3. Li Lin & Dimitrios P. Tsomocos & Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, 2019. "Debt deflation effects of monetary policy," Chapters, in: Financial Regulation and Stability, chapter 9, pages 245-258, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Lingxiao Li & Erdem Ucar & Abdullah Yavas, 2022. "Social Capital and Mortgage Delinquency," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 64(3), pages 379-403, April.
    5. Domurath, Anne & Patzelt, Holger & Liebl, Andreas, 2020. "Does negative feedback impact new ventures' organizational identity? The role of founding teams' human capital and feedback source," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 35(3).
    6. Hsiao-Yin Chen & Cheng-Few Lee & Tzu Tai & Kehluh Wang, 2011. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Reaction to the Financial Tsunami by the Taiwanese Government," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(01), pages 153-169.
    7. Huatao Peng & Chen Zhou & Yang Liu, 2020. "Entrepreneurial Experience and Performance: From the Aspect of Sustainable Growth of Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-24, September.
    8. Diego Avanzini & Juan Francisco Martínez & Víctor Pérez, 2016. "A micro-powered model of mortgage default risk for full recourse economies, with an application to the case of Chile," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Christos Giannikos & Hany Guirguis & Panagiotis Schizas, 2014. "Hedge funds and the housing bubble," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(16), pages 1063-1073, August.
    10. Simlai, Prodosh, 2019. "Subprime credit, idiosyncratic risk, and foreclosures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 175-189.
    11. Drechsler, Itamar & Savov, Alexi & Schnabl, Philipp, 2022. "How monetary policy shaped the housing boom," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 992-1021.
    12. Elizabeth Strom & Steven Reader, 2013. "Rethinking Foreclosure Dynamics in a Sunbelt City: What Parcel-Level Mortgage Data Can Teach Us About Subprime Lending and Foreclosures," Housing Policy Debate, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 59-79, January.
    13. Divino, Jose Angelo & Rocha, Líneke Clementino Sleegers, 2013. "Probability of default in collateralized credit operations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 276-292.
    14. Maw–Der Foo & Marilyn A. Uy & Charles Murnieks, 2015. "Beyond Affective Valence: Untangling Valence and Activation Influences on Opportunity Identification," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 39(2), pages 407-431, March.
    15. Oasis Kodila-Tedika & Julius Agbor, 2016. "Does Trust Matter for Entrepreneurship: Evidence from a Cross-Section of Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17, March.
    16. Francisco Javier Forcadell & Fernando Úbeda, 2022. "Individual entrepreneurial orientation and performance: the mediating role of international entrepreneurship," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 875-900, June.
    17. Adu-Gyamfi, Richard & Kuada, John & Asongu, Simplice, 2018. "An Integrative Framework for Entrepreneurship Research in Africa," MPRA Paper 89133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Teixeira, Aurora A.C. & Tavares-Lehmann, Ana Teresa, 2014. "Human capital intensity in technology-based firms located in Portugal: Does foreign ownership matter?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 737-748.
    19. Patience Mshenga & Robert Richardson, 2013. "Micro and small enterprise participation in tourism in coastal Kenya," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 667-681, October.
    20. Joseph Mason, 2001. "Do Lender of Last Resort Policies Matter? The Effects of Reconstruction Finance Corporation Assistance to Banks During the Great Depression," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 20(1), pages 77-95, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    General equilibrium; Incomplete markets; Probability of default; D52; C81;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:52:y:2020:i:c:s1062940819300609. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.