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Does options trading convey information on futures prices?

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  • Lin, William T.
  • Tsai, Shih-Chuan
  • Zheng, Zhenlong
  • Qiao, Shuai

Abstract

This paper studies the presence of informed trading in Taiwan stock index options (TXO) and analyzes the informational role of foreign institutions in incorporating information into Taiwan stock index futures (TX). We have found that only the option-induced part (OOI) of the total TX order imbalance can predict future TX prices, and the OOI calculated from open-buy TXO, defined by Ni et al. (2008), provides incremental predictability. This finding shows that the price predictability stems from the information flow resulting from option transactions rather than from liquidity pressure. We conclude further that option transactions from foreign institutions provide the most significant predictability, out-of-the-money option transactions in particular. These empirical results show that option transactions conducted by foreign institutions have played the primary role in conveying the information inherent in the TXO market to the TX market, foreign institutions being delta-informed traders. Retail investors, the major players in both the TXO and TX markets, have done almost nothing of significance with regard to TXO information transmission into the TX market, with the exception of some near-the-money and out-of-the-money options.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, William T. & Tsai, Shih-Chuan & Zheng, Zhenlong & Qiao, Shuai, 2017. "Does options trading convey information on futures prices?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 182-196.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:39:y:2017:i:c:p:182-196
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2016.10.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Doojin Ryu & Heejin Yang, 2018. "The directional information content of options volumes," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(12), pages 1533-1548, December.
    2. Lin, William T. & Tsai, Shih-Chuan & Zheng, Zhenlong & Qiao, Shuai, 2018. "Retrieving aggregate information from option volume," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 220-232.
    3. Shailesh Rastogi & Chaitaly Athaley, 2019. "Volatility Integration in Spot, Futures and Options Markets: A Regulatory Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, June.
    4. Chen, Zhiyu & Xu, Yun & Wang, Yu, 2023. "Can convertible bond trading predict stock returns? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Lee, Jaeram & Ryu, Doojin & Yang, Heejin, 2021. "Does vega-neutral options trading contain information?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 294-314.
    6. Ho, Hwai-Chung & Tsai, Wei-Che, 2020. "Price delay and post-earnings announcement drift anomalies: The role of option-implied betas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign institutions; Information transmission; Option volume; Order imbalance; Price predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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