IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v36y2016icp154-171.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Re-examining risk premiums in the Fama–French model: The role of investor sentiment

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Po-Chin
  • Liu, Shiao-Yen
  • Chen, Che-Ying

Abstract

This paper reconstructs the Fama–French three-factor (F–F) model as a panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) framework to investigate the differentiated effects of investor sentiment proxies-the volatility index (VIX), credit default swap (CDS), and TED spread-on the three risk premiums. Sample period spans from 2003: 1Q to 2013: 4Q. Sample objects are 58 semiconductor companies listed on Taiwan Security Exchange Corporation. The empirical results report that stock returns display a nonlinear path, and the three risk premiums are time-varying, depending on different proxies of investor sentiment in different regimes. Market premiums fall as investors in stock markets show extreme optimism or extreme pessimism. Except in rare situations, the size premium is significant and decreases with the increase in the VIX. Returns in holding growth stocks dominate holding value stocks when the investors show extreme pessimism or optimism. However, in normal sentiment of investment, value stocks earn more returns than growth stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Chen, Che-Ying, 2016. "Re-examining risk premiums in the Fama–French model: The role of investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 154-171.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:36:y:2016:i:c:p:154-171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2015.12.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940815001278
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2015.12.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1995. "Predicting stock market volatility: A new measure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 265-302, May.
    2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    3. Reinganum, Marc R., 1981. "A New Empirical Perspective on the CAPM," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 439-462, November.
    4. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    5. Fouquau, Julien & Hurlin, Christophe & Rabaud, Isabelle, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 284-299, March.
    6. Gregory W. Brown & Michael T. Cliff, 2005. "Investor Sentiment and Asset Valuation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 405-440, March.
    7. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Sheng-Chieh Pan, 2014. "Does Misery Index Matter for the Persistence of Health Spending? Evidence from OECD Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 893-910, September.
    8. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross‐Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, August.
    9. Bessec, Marie & Fouquau, Julien, 2008. "The non-linear link between electricity consumption and temperature in Europe: A threshold panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2705-2721, September.
    10. Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
    11. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    12. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    13. Debbie Dupuis & Eric Jacquier & Nicolas Papageorgiou & Bruno Rémillard, 2009. "Empirical evidence on the dependence of credit default swaps and equity prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(8), pages 695-712, August.
    14. Dean Diavatopoulos & James S. Doran & David R. Peterson, 2008. "The information content in implied idiosyncratic volatility and the cross‐section of stock returns: Evidence from the option markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1013-1039, November.
    15. Ramchander, S. & Schiereck, D. & Trutwein, P., 2011. "Jumps in Credit Default Swap Spreads and Stock Returns," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 56474, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    16. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    17. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    18. repec:dau:papers:123456789/8180 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Edward R. Lawrence & John Geppert & Arun J. Prakash, 2007. "Asset pricing models: a comparison," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 933-940.
    20. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Pan, Sheng-Chieh, 2013. "Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 318-329.
    21. Cheng, Che-Hui & Wu, Po-Chin, 2013. "Nonlinear earnings persistence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 156-168.
    22. Neal, Robert & Wheatley, Simon M., 1998. "Do Measures of Investor Sentiment Predict Returns?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 523-547, December.
    23. Robert B. Durand & Dominic Lim & J. Kenton Zumwalt, 2011. "Fear and the Fama‐French Factors," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 40(2), pages 409-426, June.
    24. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    25. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    26. Kevin Q. Wang, 2003. "Asset Pricing with Conditioning Information: A New Test," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 161-196, February.
    27. Brown, Gregory W. & Cliff, Michael T., 2004. "Investor sentiment and the near-term stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, January.
    28. Robert Faff, 2004. "A simple test of the Fama and French model using daily data: Australian evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 83-92.
    29. Annalisa Aleati & Pietro Gottardo & Maurizio Murgia, 2000. "The Pricing of Italian Equity Returns," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(2), pages 153-177, July.
    30. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2006. "Profitability, investment and average returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 491-518, December.
    31. Simpson, Marc W. & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2008. "An inquiry into the economic fundamentals of the Fama and French equity factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 801-815, December.
    32. William Cheung & Scott Fung & Shih-Chuan Tsai, 2010. "Global capital market interdependence and spillover effect of credit risk: evidence from the 2007-2009 global financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 85-103.
    33. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kang, Hankil & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Information in mispricing factors for future investment opportunities," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 657-668.
    2. Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan & López-Cabarcos, M. Ángeles & Šević, Aleksandar, 2022. "Green bond market and Sentiment: Is there a switching Behaviour?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 520-527.
    3. Tong Fang & Zhi Su & Libo Yin, 2021. "Does the green inspiration effect matter for stock returns? Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2155-2176, May.
    4. Harshita & Shveta Singh & Surendra S. Yadav, 2018. "Changing Nature of the Value Premium in the Indian Stock Market," Vision, , vol. 22(2), pages 135-143, June.
    5. Shahrin Saaid Shaharuddin & Wee-Yeap Lau & Rubi Ahmad, 2017. "New Islamic equity style indices: Constructing and testing the efficacy of information transmission," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1363355-136, January.
    6. Liang, Hanchao & Yang, Chunpeng & Zhang, Rengui & Cai, Chuangqun, 2017. "Bounded rationality, anchoring-and-adjustment sentiment, and asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 85-102.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Sheng-Chieh Pan, 2014. "Does Misery Index Matter for the Persistence of Health Spending? Evidence from OECD Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 893-910, September.
    2. Po-Chin Wu & Sheng-Chieh Pan & Xue-Ling Tai, 2015. "Non-linearity, persistence and spillover effects in stock returns: the role of the volatility index," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 597-613, August.
    3. Berger, Dave & Turtle, H.J., 2012. "Cross-sectional performance and investor sentiment in a multiple risk factor model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1107-1121.
    4. Sayim, Mustafa & Rahman, Hamid, 2015. "An examination of U.S. institutional and individual investor sentiment effect on the Turkish stock market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    5. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2014. "Investor Sentiment, Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 531-577, September.
    6. Seok, Sang Ik & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Firm-specific investor sentiment and daily stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    7. Po-Chin Wu & Chia-Jui Chang, 2017. "Nonlinear impacts of debt ratio and term spread on inward FDI performance persistence," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(3), pages 369-388, December.
    8. Zhou, Xuemei & Liu, Qiang & Guo, Shuxin, 2021. "Do overnight returns explain firm-specific investor sentiment in China?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 451-477.
    9. Stambaugh, Robert F. & Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2012. "The short of it: Investor sentiment and anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 288-302.
    10. Verma, Rahul & Soydemir, Gökçe, 2009. "The impact of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 1129-1145, August.
    11. Po-Chin Wu & Shiao-Yen Liu & Kou-Bau Wang, 2017. "Does Unemployment Matter for Lottery Sales and their Persistence? A New Estimation Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 581-592, January.
    12. Hou, Yang & Meng, Jiayin, 2018. "The momentum effect in the Chinese market and its relationship with the simultaneous and the lagged investor sentiment," MPRA Paper 94838, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, June.
    14. Chung, San-Lin & Hung, Chi-Hsiou & Yeh, Chung-Ying, 2012. "When does investor sentiment predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 217-240.
    15. Po-Chin Wu & Hsiao & I-Chung & Tsai & Meng-Hua, 2018. "Nonlinear Effect of Business Cycle on Lottery Sales Stability," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(4), pages 1-3.
    16. Ramiah, Vikash & Xu, Xiaoming & Moosa, Imad A., 2015. "Neoclassical finance, behavioral finance and noise traders: A review and assessment of the literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-100.
    17. Labidi, Chiraz & Yaakoubi, Soumaya, 2016. "Investor sentiment and aggregate volatility pricing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 53-63.
    18. Yang, Yan & Copeland, Laurence, 2014. "The Effects of Sentiment on Market Return and Volatility and The Cross-Sectional Risk Premium of Sentiment-affected Volatility," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2014/12, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    19. Yiannis Karavias & Stella Spilioti & Elias Tzavalis, 2021. "Investor sentiment effects on share price deviations from their intrinsic values based on accounting fundamentals," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1593-1621, May.
    20. Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 394-408, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:36:y:2016:i:c:p:154-171. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.