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Sources of volatility persistence: A case study of the U.K. pound/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns

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  • Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul Alam
  • Anwar, Sajid

Abstract

This paper utilizes a new approach to examine the inherent nonlinear dynamics of the exchange rate returns volatility. Specifically, we utilize a regime switching threshold (i) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (RS-TGARCH) and (ii) a fractional generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (RS-TFIGARCH) model. The RS-TGARCH model is found to be adequate in analyzing the first two moments of the U.K. pound/U.S. dollar monthly exchange rate returns series. The RS-TFIGARCH is found to be adequate for the daily returns series. The volatility persistence and leverage effects associated with exchange rate returns series are jointly tested by means of a Wald Chi-square test.

Suggested Citation

  • Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul Alam & Anwar, Sajid, 2012. "Sources of volatility persistence: A case study of the U.K. pound/U.S. dollar exchange rate returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 165-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:23:y:2012:i:2:p:165-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2012.02.001
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    4. Ho, Kin-Yip & Shi, Yanlin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2013. "How does news sentiment impact asset volatility? Evidence from long memory and regime-switching approaches," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 436-456.
    5. Ulibarri, Carlos A., 2013. "Multivariate GARCH analysis of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and American International Group: Did the short-selling ban reduce systemic return-risk?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 60-69.
    6. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugando, Mikel, 2014. "US dollar exchange rate and food price dependence: Implications for portfolio risk management," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 72-89.
    7. Grossmann, Axel & Orlov, Alexei G., 2022. "Exchange rate misalignments, capital flows and volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Wang, Janchung & Yeh, Shih-Kuo & Wang, Bo-Ting, 2020. "The effect of short-sale restrictions on the information transmission of extended index futures trading," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Leverage effect; Volatility persistence; Regime switching GARCH models; Exchange rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B23 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Econometrics; Quantitative and Mathematical Studies
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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