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The effect of short sale constraints on analyst forecast quality: Evidence from a natural experiment in China

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  • Li, Hao
  • Li, Zhisheng
  • Lin, Bingxuan
  • Xu, Xiaowei

Abstract

We examine the effect of short selling on analyst forecast quality following the pilot program in China in 2010 that allows short selling for selected companies. We find that reduction in short sale constraints significantly improves analyst forecast quality for these pilot-firms when compared to non-pilot firms. Specifically, analyst forecast errors for pilot firms are smaller and forecast dispersions are narrower. Further, we show that the improvement of analyst forecast quality is more prominent for firms with lower prior price efficiencies and disclosure quality, and in locations with lower institutional development. Our findings suggest that short selling activities serve an important role in facilitating the speed of information incorporation and improving the information environment faced by firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Hao & Li, Zhisheng & Lin, Bingxuan & Xu, Xiaowei, 2019. "The effect of short sale constraints on analyst forecast quality: Evidence from a natural experiment in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 338-347.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:81:y:2019:i:c:p:338-347
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.06.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yanxi Li & Siu Kai Choy & Mingzhu Wang, 2022. "The potential built‐in supply effect from margin trading in the Chinese stock market," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 835-861, November.
    3. Xufeng Liu & Die Wan, 2022. "Does short‐selling affect mutual fund shareholdings? Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(S1), pages 1887-1923, April.
    4. Tan, Ruipeng & Zhu, Wenjun & Pan, Lulu & Wu, Huaqing, 2024. "Short selling and de-zombification: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 86-102.
    5. Miao Jiang & Bo Zhu & Luxi Li, 2024. "Manager‐specific manipulation of tone and stock price synchronicity," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(4), pages 3803-3821, December.
    6. Wang, Zhao & He, Yali & Jiang, Tianqi, 2024. "Does the gender composition of local governments matter for firms’ information environment? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Liu, Qigui & Chi, Wenqiang & Wang, Junyi, 2024. "How informative is question-and-answer similarity to financial analysts? Evidence from Chinese earnings communication conferences," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    8. Wu, Yanran & Zhang, Chao, 2022. "Hard to arbitrage, hard for analysts to forecast," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    9. Zhou, Yankun & Tang, Taijie & Luo, Le, 2023. "Is corporate environmental investment a strategic risk management tool? Evidence from short selling threats," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Liu, Chang & Sun, Peng & Zhu, Dongming, 2023. "Lottery preference, short-sale constraint, and the salience effect: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Short sale; Analyst forecast; Chinese market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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