IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v74y2018icp142-166.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

ETLA macro model for forecasting and policy simulations

Author

Listed:
  • Lehmus, Markku

Abstract

This paper presents a review of a quarterly macroeconomic model built for forecasting and policy simulation purposes at the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA). The ETLA model can be labelled as a structural econometric macro model (also known as “SEM” or “policy model” in the recent literature). The ETLA model constitutes of 81 endogenous and 70 exogenous variables and hence at this stage, it is relatively small in size. The model encompasses Keynesian features in the short run, albeit particular attention is paid to its long-term equilibrium properties which are defined from supply side. Owing to these characteristics, its adjustment to external/policy shocks resembles the behavior of New Keynesian DSGE models with sticky prices and wages. The agents of the model are partly forward-looking.

Suggested Citation

  • Lehmus, Markku, 2018. "ETLA macro model for forecasting and policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 142-166.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:74:y:2018:i:c:p:142-166
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.05.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999318300063
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.05.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chirinko, Robert S, 1993. "Business Fixed Investment Spending: Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1875-1911, December.
    2. Robert S. Chirinko, 1992. "Business Fixed Investment Spending: A Critical survey of Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications," Working Papers 9213, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
    3. Lichter, Andreas & Peichl, Andreas & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2015. "The own-wage elasticity of labor demand: A meta-regression analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 94-119.
    4. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    5. Hjelm, Göran & Bornevall, Helena & Fromlet, Pia & Nilsson, Jonny & Stockhammar , Pär & Wiberg, Magnus, 2015. "Appropriate Macroeconomic Model Support for the Ministry of Finance and the National Institute of Economic Research: A Pilot Study," Working Papers 137, National Institute of Economic Research.
    6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    7. Francesca D'Auria & Cécile Denis & Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "The production function methodology for calculating potential growth rates and output gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 420, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Llaudes, Ricardo, 2005. "The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment," Working Paper Series 441, European Central Bank.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2014_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Lehmus, Markku, 2009. "Empirical macroeconomic model of the Finnish economy (EMMA)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 926-933, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lehmus, Markku, 2009. "Empirical macroeconomic model of the Finnish economy (EMMA)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 926-933, September.
    2. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.
    3. Walch, Florian & Dwenger, Nadja, 2011. "Tax Losses and Firm Investment: Evidence from Tax Statistics," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48699, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Mansor Ibrahim & Abdullahi Ahmed, 2013. "Stock Market and Aggregate Investment Behavior in Malaysia: An Empirical Analysis," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 20(2), pages 265-284, October.
    5. Ahsan Abbas & Eatzaz Ahmed & Fazal Husain, 2019. "Political and Economic Uncertainty and Investment Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 307-331.
    6. Verschueren, Frederic, 2000. "Co-integration inference in the value-profit relation and investment models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 289-297, December.
    7. Tweneboah Senzu, Emmanuel & Ndebugri, Haruna, 2018. "The economic evidence in the relationship between corporate tax and private investment in Ghana," MPRA Paper 84729, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Markku Lehmus, 2009. "Labour Taxation and Employment: An Analysis with a Macroeconomic Model for the Finnish Economy," Working Papers 249, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    9. Alexiou, Constantinos & Tsaliki, Persefoni & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2014. "Classical Theory of Investment. Panel Cointegration Evidence from Thirteen EU Countries," MPRA Paper 60598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Daniele Girardi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2015. "Autonomous demand and economic growth:some empirical evidence," Department of Economics University of Siena 714, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    11. Seloinyana Elizabeth Selelo, 2012. "Determinants of Fixed Foreign Direct Investment in Botswana," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 4(7), pages 414-422.
    12. Robert S. Chirinko & Debdulal Mallick, 2014. "The Substitution Elasticity, Factor Shares, Long-Run Growth, and the Low-Frequency Panel Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 4895, CESifo.
    13. Nadja Dwenger, 2014. "User Cost Elasticity of Capital Revisited," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(321), pages 161-186, January.
    14. Robert S. Chirinko & Debdulal Mallick, 2017. "The Substitution Elasticity, Factor Shares, and the Low-Frequency Panel Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 225-253, October.
    15. Balázs Égert, 2018. "Regulation, Institutions and Aggregate Investment: New Evidence from OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 415-449, April.
    16. Oleksandr Shcherbakov, 2022. "Firm‐level investment under imperfect capital markets in Ukraine," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 227-255, February.
    17. Kiley, Michael T., 2001. "Computers and growth with frictions: aggregate and disaggregate evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 171-215, December.
    18. Bergman, Mats A. & Johansson, Per & Bergman, M.A., 2002. "Large investments in the pulp and paper industry: a count data regression analysis," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 29-52.
    19. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    20. Karl Whelan, 2002. "Some New Economy Lessons for Macroeconomists," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 68(1), pages 21-36.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:74:y:2018:i:c:p:142-166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.