IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v39y2014icp123-137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The economic effects of lowering HIV incidence in South Africa: A CGE analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Roos, E.L.
  • Giesecke, J.A.

Abstract

South Africa has the highest UNAIDS HIV severity rating: “generalised pandemic”. A country with this classification requires public health interventions aimed at the general population. This paper investigates the efficacy of one such policy, examining the national economic effects of an increase in condom use. We use an epidemiological model to estimate the impact of condom use on HIV infections distinguished by age, gender and race. The epidemiological model's outputs are input to an economy-wide dynamic general equilibrium model that distinguishes labour market participants by age, gender, race, labour market status and HIV status. We find that the programme generates gains in real consumption with a present value of approximately USD $30billion, or USD $2000 per household.

Suggested Citation

  • Roos, E.L. & Giesecke, J.A., 2014. "The economic effects of lowering HIV incidence in South Africa: A CGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 123-137.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:123-137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2014.02.028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999314000728
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2014.02.028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter B. Dixon & Martin Johnson & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2011. "Economy‐Wide Effects Of Reducing Illegal Immigrants In U.S. Employment," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(1), pages 14-30, January.
    2. Louise Roos, 2014. "Theoretical specification of a labour-supply module, including HIV/AIDS, for South Africa," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-241, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Mr. Markus Haacker, 2002. "The Economic Consequences of HIV/AIDS in Southern Africa," IMF Working Papers 2002/038, International Monetary Fund.
    4. CN Morris & DR Burdge & EJ Cheevers, 2000. "Economic Impact of HIV Infection in a Cohort of Male Sugar Mill Workers in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 68(5), pages 413-419, December.
    5. Louise Roos, 2013. "Labour-market database for South Africa with HIV/AIDS detail," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-235, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Dixon, Peter B. & Parmenter, B. R. & Powell, Alan A., 1984. "The role of miniatures in computable general equilibrium modelling : Experience from ORANI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 421-428, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. E. Roos & P. Adams & J. Heerden, 2015. "Constructing a CGE Database Using GEMPACK for an African Country," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 495-518, December.
    2. Bidzha, Mashudu Lucas & Ngepah, Nicholas & Greyling, Talita, 2024. "The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the relationship between HIV/AIDS and economic growth," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 368-387.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Louise Roos, 2013. "Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-233, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Yinhua Mai & Xiujian Peng & Peter Dixon & Maureen Rimmer, 2014. "The economic effects of facilitating the flow of rural workers to urban employment in China," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(3), pages 619-642, August.
    3. Mr. Gary G. Moser & Mr. Toshihiro Ichida, 2001. "Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2001/112, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Giesecke, James A. & Nhi, Tran Hoang, 2010. "Modelling value-added tax in the presence of multi-production and differentiated exemptions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 156-173, April.
    5. Mr. Brou E Aka & Mr. Bernardin Akitoby & Mr. Amor Tahari & Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura, 2004. "Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2004/176, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Fabrice Murtin & Federica Marzo, 2007. "HIV/AIDS and Poverty in South Africa: a Bayesian Estimation," Cahiers de recherche 07-08, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    7. James A. Giesecke & John R. Madden, 2013. "Evidence-based regional economic policy analysis: the role of CGE modelling," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 6(2), pages 285-301.
    8. J. A. Giesecke & W. J. Burns & A. Barrett & E. Bayrak & A. Rose & P. Slovic & M. Suher, 2012. "Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE Analysis of Resource Loss and Behavioral Effects of an RDD Attack Scenario," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(4), pages 583-600, April.
    9. Zhai, Fan, 2008. "Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 575-604.
    10. Boeters, Stefan & Savard, Luc, 2011. "The labour market in CGE models," ZEW Discussion Papers 11-079, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. JAMES H. BREECE & KEITH R. McLAREN & CHRISTOPHER W. MURPHY & ALAN A. POWELL, 1994. "Using the Murphy Model to Provide Short‐run Macroeconomic Closure for ORANI," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(210), pages 292-314, September.
    12. James Giesecke & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2008. "Regional macroeconomic outcomes under alternative arrangements for the financing of public infrastructure," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 87(1), pages 3-31, March.
    13. Drakos, Anastasios & Moratis, Georgios, 2024. "The impact of COVID-19 on sovereign contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Nhi Tran & Philip Adams & James Giesecke, 2014. "Construction of the database for OMAGE (Oman Applied General Equilibrium) model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-288, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    15. Brian Parmenter, 2004. "Distinguished Fellow of the Economic Society of Australia, 2003: Peter Dixon," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(249), pages 141-144, June.
    16. Louise Roos, 2014. "Theoretical specification of a labour-supply module, including HIV/AIDS, for South Africa," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-241, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    17. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T. & Waschik, Robert G., 2018. "Evaluating the effects of local content measures in a CGE model: Eliminating the US Buy America(n) programs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 155-166.
    18. Heinrich R. Bohlmann, 2012. "Reducing illegal immigration to South Africa: A dynamic CGE analysis," Working Papers 201213, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    19. Aguiar, Angel H. & Walmsley, Terrie L., 2014. "The importance of timing in the U.S. response to undocumented immigrants: A recursive dynamic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-262.
    20. Mariano, Marc Jim M. & Giesecke, James A., 2014. "The macroeconomic and food security implications of price interventions in the Philippine rice market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 350-361.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable general equilibrium (CGE); Africa; HIV prevention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:123-137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.