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Volatility forecasting using high frequency data: Evidence from stock markets

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  • Çelik, Sibel
  • Ergin, Hüseyin

Abstract

The paper aims to suggest the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. The findings of this paper support the superiority of high frequency based volatility forecasting models over traditional GARCH models. MIDAS and HAR-RV-CJ models are found to be the best among high frequency based volatility forecasting models. Moreover, MIDAS model performs better in crisis period. The findings of paper are important for financial institutions, investors and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Çelik, Sibel & Ergin, Hüseyin, 2014. "Volatility forecasting using high frequency data: Evidence from stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 176-190.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:36:y:2014:i:c:p:176-190
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.09.038
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    Cited by:

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    2. Thushari N. Vidanage & Fabrizio Carmignani & Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Predictability of Return Volatility Across Different Emerging Capital Markets: Evidence from Asia," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 6(2), pages 157-177, December.
    3. Yue-Jun Zhang & Han Zhang, 2023. "Volatility Forecasting of Crude Oil Market: Which Structural Change Based GARCH Models have Better Performance?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(1), pages 175-194, January.
    4. Tang, Zhenpeng & Lin, Qiaofeng & Cai, Yi & Chen, Kaijie & Liu, Dinggao, 2024. "Harnessing the power of real-time forum opinion: Unveiling its impact on stock market dynamics using intraday high-frequency data in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2017. "Forecasting realized volatility: HAR against Principal Components Combining, neural networks and GARCH," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 824-839.
    6. Liu, Yi & Liu, Huifang & Zhang, Lei, 2019. "Modeling and forecasting return jumps using realized variation measures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 63-80.
    7. Dimitrios I. Vortelinos & Konstantinos Gkillas, 2018. "Intraday realised volatility forecasting and announcements," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 88-118.
    8. Ma, Feng & Liu, Jing & Huang, Dengshi & Chen, Wang, 2017. "Forecasting the oil futures price volatility: A new approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 560-566.
    9. Liu, Jing & Wei, Yu & Ma, Feng & Wahab, M.I.M., 2017. "Forecasting the realized range-based volatility using dynamic model averaging approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 12-26.
    10. Liu, Jing & Ma, Feng & Yang, Ke & Zhang, Yaojie, 2018. "Forecasting the oil futures price volatility: Large jumps and small jumps," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 321-330.
    11. Dicle, Mehmet F. & Levendis, John, 2020. "Historic risk and implied volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    12. Xu Gong & Boqiang Lin, 2018. "Structural breaks and volatility forecasting in the copper futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 290-339, March.
    13. Gong, Xu & Lin, Boqiang, 2019. "Modeling stock market volatility using new HAR-type models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 516(C), pages 194-211.
    14. Wen, Fenghua & Gong, Xu & Cai, Shenghua, 2016. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using HAR-type models with structural breaks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 400-413.
    15. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2021. "Intraday return predictability in China’s crude oil futures market: New evidence from a unique trading mechanism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 209-219.
    16. Anupam Dutta & Debojyoti Das, 2022. "Forecasting realized volatility: New evidence from time‐varying jumps in VIX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2165-2189, December.
    17. Wang Pu & Yixiang Chen & Feng Ma, 2016. "Forecasting the realized volatility in the Chinese stock market: further evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(33), pages 3116-3130, July.
    18. Niu, Zibo & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "The role of uncertainty measures in volatility forecasting of the crude oil futures market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    19. Yang, Cai & Gong, Xu & Zhang, Hongwei, 2019. "Volatility forecasting of crude oil futures: The role of investor sentiment and leverage effect," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 548-563.
    20. Maria Ghani & Feng Ma & Dengshi Huang, 2024. "Forecasting the Asian stock market volatility: Evidence from WTI and INE oil futures," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1496-1512, April.
    21. Huang, Zhuo & Liu, Hao & Wang, Tianyi, 2016. "Modeling long memory volatility using realized measures of volatility: A realized HAR GARCH model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 812-821.
    22. Shi, Wendong & Sun, Jingwei, 2016. "Aggregation and long-memory: An analysis based on the discrete Fourier transform," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 470-476.
    23. Tseng, Tseng-Chan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2015. "Volatility forecast of country ETF: The sequential information arrival hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 228-234.
    24. Plíhal, Tomáš & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2021. "Modeling realized volatility of the EUR/USD exchange rate: Does implied volatility really matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 811-829.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Realized volatility; High frequency data; Price jumps;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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