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Common trends and common cycles in stock markets

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Thuraisamy, Kannan S.

Abstract

In this paper we examine the role of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining variations in the S&P 500, Dow Jones and the NASDAQ. Our modeling technique involves imposing both common trend and common cycle restrictions in extracting the variance decomposition of shocks. We find that: (1) the three stock price indices are characterized by a common trend and common cycle relationship; and (2) permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in stock prices over short horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2013. "Common trends and common cycles in stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 472-476.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:472-476
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Pontines, Victor, 2017. "The financial cycles in four East Asian economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-66.
    2. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Thuraisamy, Kannan Sivananthan, 2014. "An analysis of price discovery from panel data models of CDS and equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 167-177.
    3. Xu, Jia & Tan, Xiujie & He, Gang & Liu, Yu, 2019. "Disentangling the drivers of carbon prices in China's ETS pilots — An EEMD approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1-9.
    4. K. Hafsal & S. Raja Sethu Durai, 2023. "Fundamental and bubble spillovers in stock markets: a common trend approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-17, March.
    5. Vatsa, Puneet & Basnet, Hem C., 2020. "The dynamics of energy prices and the Norwegian economy: A common trends and common cycles analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
    7. Vatsa, Puneet, 2020. "Comovement amongst the demand for New Zealand tourism," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Marczak, Martyna & Gómez, Víctor, 2015. "Cyclicality of real wages in the USA and Germany: New insights from wavelet analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 40-52.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock prices; Trend-cycle decomposition; Permanent and transitory shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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