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Government debt, inflation dynamics and the transmission of fiscal policy shocks

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  • Mayer, Eric
  • Rüth, Sebastian
  • Scharler, Johann

Abstract

We analyze the influence of the fiscal position on the transmission of government spending shocks in a New Keynesian model. We find that once we allow for positive levels of government debt in the steady state, the size of the fiscal multiplier depends strongly on the horizon at which the multiplier is evaluated. While the long-run effect of a fiscal policy innovation is typically of a similar order of magnitude as in Galí et al. (2007), short-run multipliers differ substantially. The reason for this non-monotonic behavior is the interaction between the dynamics of the inflation rate and the debt level in real terms for sufficiently high levels of government debt in the steady state.

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  • Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian & Scharler, Johann, 2013. "Government debt, inflation dynamics and the transmission of fiscal policy shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 762-771.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:762-771
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.05.011
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    2. Stephanos Papadamou & Trifon Tzivinikos, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation policies in Greece," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(1), pages 34-49, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multiplier; New Keynesian model; Government debt; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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