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Investment creation and diversion effects of the ASEAN–China free trade agreement

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  • Lakatos, Csilla
  • Walmsley, Terrie

Abstract

The ASEAN–China free trade agreement went into effect January 1, 2010 and became the world's third largest FTA by trade volume after the European Economic Area and the North American Free Trade Agreement. This paper focuses on highlighting the impacts of the reduction of barriers to trade on investment in a dynamic general computable equilibrium framework. We present and compare two alternative views/models of investment which yield different investment creation and diversion effects. As a first step, we adapt the dynamic GTAP model to take account of bilateral ownership of investment. Two versions of the model are considered. The first version is an example of applied models of investment demand, while the second is a model of investment supply. The two versions are based on different assumptions in their determination of cross-border investment. We simulate the implementation of ACFTA and we focus on the welfare impacts of investment creation and diversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Lakatos, Csilla & Walmsley, Terrie, 2012. "Investment creation and diversion effects of the ASEAN–China free trade agreement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 766-779.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:3:p:766-779
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.004
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    2. Michiel van Dijk & George Philippidis & Geert Woltjer, 2016. "Catching up with history: A methodology to validate global CGE models," FOODSECURE Technical papers 9, LEI Wageningen UR.
    3. Xiang, Hongjin & Kuang, Yanxiang & Li, Chenhua, 2017. "Impact of the China–Australia FTA on global coal production and trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 65-78.
    4. Nathapornpan Piyaareekul Uttama, 2021. "International Investment Agreements Provisions and Foreign Direct Investment Flows in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Region," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, March.
    5. Knobel, Alexander & Chokaev, Bekhan, 2014. "Possible Economic Outcomes of a Trade Agreement with the European Union," EconStor Preprints 121853, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Li, Qiaomin & Scollay, Robert & Maani, Sholeh, 2016. "Effects on China and ASEAN of the ASEAN-China FTA: The FDI perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Yin, Hua & Du, Zaichao & Zhang, Lin, 2018. "Assessing the gains and vulnerability of free trade: A counterfactual analysis of Macau," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 147-158.
    8. Huang, Qingbo & Zhang, Xiaohan & Li, Yan, 2023. "Study on the economic effects of China and ASEAN countries from the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 123-135.

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