IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v28y2011i5p2190-2196.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Psychological determinants of occurrence and magnitude of market crashes

Author

Listed:
  • Leoni, Patrick L.

Abstract

We simulate the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model of Mehra-Prescott [14] to establish the link between the anticipation of endowment drops (for instance a recession) and sudden market crashes. Contrary to the commonly accepted view that those crashes are solely driven by large drops in endowments at the time they occur, the simulation shows that: 1--a large and subjective anticipation of an endowment drop amplifies the magnitude of the crash next period without permanent effects, and 2--there always exists an upper-bound on the maximal anticipation of the drop so that the crash magnitude next period remains constant regardless of the drop level. Those findings are independent of the risk aversion of agents, and of the formation process of the anticipation.

Suggested Citation

  • Leoni, Patrick L., 2011. "Psychological determinants of occurrence and magnitude of market crashes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2190-2196, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:5:p:2190-2196
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999311001404
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    2. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
    3. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On the Structure and Diversity of Rational Beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(6), pages 877-900, October.
    4. Patarick Leoni, 2007. "Psychological Aspects of Market Crashes," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1730407, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    5. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts," Kiel Working Papers 1426, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts," Economics Working Papers 2008-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    7. Orlean, Andre, 1995. "Bayesian interactions and collective dynamics of opinion: Herd behavior and mimetic contagion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 257-274, October.
    8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    9. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
    10. Offerman, Theo & Sonnemans, Joep, 1998. "Learning by experience and learning by imitating successful others," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 559-575, March.
    11. Aloisio Araujo & Alvaro Sandroni, 1999. "On the Convergence to Homogeneous Expectations when Markets Are Complete," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 663-672, May.
    12. In Ho Lee, 1998. "Market Crashes and Informational Avalanches," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(4), pages 741-759.
    13. Hernandez D., Alejandro & Santos, Manuel S., 1996. "Competitive Equilibria for Infinite-Horizon Economies with Incomplete Markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 102-130, October.
    14. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-896, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patarick Leoni, 2007. "Psychological Aspects of Market Crashes," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1730407, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    2. Radu T. Pruna & Maria Polukarov & Nicholas R. Jennings, 2016. "A new structural stochastic volatility model of asset pricing and its stylized facts," Papers 1604.08824, arXiv.org.
    3. Torsten Trimborn & Philipp Otte & Simon Cramer & Maximilian Beikirch & Emma Pabich & Martin Frank, 2020. "SABCEMM: A Simulator for Agent-Based Computational Economic Market Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 707-744, February.
    4. Calvet, Laurent-Emmanuel & Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Lemaire, Isabelle, 2018. "Aggregation of heterogenous beliefs, asset pricing, and risk sharing in complete financial markets," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 117-146.
    5. Simon Cramer & Torsten Trimborn, 2019. "Stylized Facts and Agent-Based Modeling," Papers 1912.02684, arXiv.org.
    6. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, "undated". "Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility," Working Papers 99005, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    7. Torsten Trimborn & Philipp Otte & Simon Cramer & Max Beikirch & Emma Pabich & Martin Frank, 2018. "SABCEMM-A Simulator for Agent-Based Computational Economic Market Models," Papers 1801.01811, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    8. Thorsten Hens & Sabine Elmiger, 2019. "Economic Foundations for Finance," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-030-05427-4, June.
    9. Jón Daníelsson & Jean-Pierre Zigrand, 2008. "Equilibrium asset pricing with systemic risk," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 35(2), pages 293-319, May.
    10. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    11. Mesly, Olivier & Chkir, Imed & Racicot, François-Éric, 2019. "Predatory cells and puzzling financial crises: Are toxic products good for the financial markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 11-31.
    12. Ghonghadze, Jaba & Lux, Thomas, 2016. "Bringing an elementary agent-based model to the data: Estimation via GMM and an application to forecasting of asset price volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
    13. Boldrin, Michele & Levine, David K., 2001. "Growth Cycles and Market Crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 13-39, January.
    14. Demary, Markus, 2010. "Transaction taxes and traders with heterogeneous investment horizons in an agent-based financial market model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-44.
    15. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Properties of equilibrium asset prices under alternative learning schemes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 161-217, January.
    16. Torsten Trimborn, 2018. "A Macroscopic Portfolio Model: From Rational Agents to Bounded Rationality," Papers 1805.11036, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    17. Maximilian Beikirch & Simon Cramer & Martin Frank & Philipp Otte & Emma Pabich & Torsten Trimborn, 2018. "Simulation of Stylized Facts in Agent-Based Computational Economic Market Models," Papers 1812.02726, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
    18. Spelta, A. & Flori, A. & Pecora, N. & Pammolli, F., 2021. "Financial crises: Uncovering self-organized patterns and predicting stock markets instability," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 736-756.
    19. Johnson, Christopher, 2016. "Differences of Opinion, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 70951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Stracca, Livio, 2004. "Behavioral finance and asset prices: Where do we stand?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 373-405, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:5:p:2190-2196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.