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Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU

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  • Reade, J. James
  • Volz, Ulrich

Abstract

In this paper, the monetary policy independence of European nations in the years before European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is investigated using cointegration techniques. Daily data is used to assess pairwise relationships between individual EMU nations and 'lead' nation Germany, to assess the hypothesis that Germany was the dominant European nation prior to EMU. By and large our econometric investigations support this hypothesis, and lead us to conclude that the only European nation to lose monetary policy independence in the light of monetary union was Germany. Our results have important policy implications. Given that the loss of monetary policy independence is generally viewed as the main cost of monetary unification, our findings suggest a reconsideration of the costs and benefits of monetary integration. A country can only lose what it has, and in Europe the countries that joined EMU -- spare Germany -- apparently did not have much to lose, at least not in terms of monetary independence. Instead, they actually gained monetary policy influence by getting a seat in the ECB's governing council which is responsible for setting interest policy in the euro area.

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  • Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2011. "Leader of the pack? German monetary dominance in Europe prior to EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 239-250, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1-2:p:239-250
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    3. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2011. "When You Got Nothing, You Got Nothing to Lose – Regional Monetary Integration and Policy Independence," Chapters, in: Ulrich Volz (ed.), Regional Integration, Economic Development and Global Governance, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. J. James Reade & Ulrich Volz, 2009. "Too Much to Lose, or More to Gain? Should Sweden Join the Euro?," Economics Series Working Papers 442, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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    6. Chortareas, Georgios & Mavrodimitrakis, Christos, 2016. "Can monetary policy fully stabilize pure demand shocks in a monetary union with a fiscal leader?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 463-468.
    7. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2013. "Long-run interest rate convergence in Poland and the EMU," Working Papers 2013-21, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    8. Ulrich Volz, 2016. "Regional Financial Integration in East Asia against the Backdrop of Recent European Experiences," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 272-293, June.
    9. Reade, J. James & Volz, Ulrich, 2010. "Chinese monetary policy and the dollar peg," Discussion Papers 2010/35, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    10. Goh, Soo Khoon & McNown, Robert, 2015. "Examining the exchange rate regime–monetary policy autonomy nexus: Evidence from Malaysia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 292-303.
    11. Łukasz Goczek & Dagmara Mycielska, 2014. "Monetary policy and nominal convergence in CEE countries with inflation targeting," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 38.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy independence European monetary integration Cointegrated VAR method;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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