Are housing property rights important for fertility outcomes in China? Empirical evidence and policy issues

This is the first econometric study of the impact of housing property rights on family fertility in China. It is important policy-wise because China’s government wants to raise China’s birth rate. This analysis is based on relevant samples drawn from the 2016 China Family Survey and utilizes linear probability, Probit and two-stage least square models. Having housing property rights is found to have a statistically significant positive influence on fertility in China. This result is consistent with most research results for other countries. Other significant influences on fertility include income levels, the sex of respondents, age, whether they are employed, their health and level of education. Furthermore, it is found (in China) that if the first-born child is a boy, parents are less likely to have a second child; and that rural families have substantially more children than urban ones. These features (as observed in the literature) are common in patriarchal societies and in developing ones. It is argued that China’s economic reforms and structural economic change (especially rapid urbanization) have led to a substantial reduction in its birth rate. Given our research results, it is unlikely that the cessation of China’s ‘One Child’ policy will in itself result in a sizeable rise in its fertility rate. Nevertheless, given our findings, public policies facilitating the purchase of housing by first-home buyers should contribute positively to China’s fertility rate.