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The impact of terrorism on economic performance: The case of Turkey

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  • Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo
  • Park, Donghyun
  • Khan, Alam

Abstract

We apply the terrorist attack vulnerability evaluation model (TAVE-Model) to evaluate the effect of terrorism on the economic performance of Turkey. We examine both the short run and long-run economic impact of terrorist attacks in Turkey. The TAVE-Model deploys a number of indicators to evaluate the economic impact. The indicators are economic desgrowth (-δ), intensity of terrorist activities (αi), terrorist attack losses (-π), economic wear (Π), level of terrorist attack tension (ζ), level of terrorist attacks monitoring (η), and total economic leaking (Ωt) under a terrorist attack. The basic underlying idea of TAVE-Model is that the economic impact of a terrorist attack depends on a country’s vulnerability to attacks from domestic and international terrorist groups. The application of a model to Turkey is highly topical in light of the spate of terrorist attacks the country suffered in recent years. The results of TAVE-Model confirm that economic leaking, economic desgrowth, and economic wear has increased between 1990 and 2016. The issue of terrorism in Turkey is multidimensional, and tackling it requires an effective social assistance program as well as a stronger and impartial justice system. These reforms will render poorer Turks less vulnerable and increase the opportunity cost of terrorism.

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  • Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo & Park, Donghyun & Khan, Alam, 2018. "The impact of terrorism on economic performance: The case of Turkey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 78-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:60:y:2018:i:c:p:78-88
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2018.09.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada & Alam Khan & Donghyun Park, 2018. "The economic cost of the Islamic State on the Syrian and Iraqi economies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1707-1730, July.
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    15. Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada & Donghyun Park & Muhammad Tahir & Alam Khan, 2018. "How does terrorism affect the international trade of Muslims countries?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 2255-2268, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Habib Sekrafi & Mehdi Abid & Soufiene Assidi, 2021. "The impact of terrorism on formal and informal economy in African countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1163-1180, January.
    2. Gok, Ibrahim Yasar & Demirdogen, Yavuz & Topuz, Sefa, 2020. "The impacts of terrorism on Turkish equity market: An investigation using intraday data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    3. Gunay Ozcan & Cigdem Karter, 2020. "The Relationship of Economic Growth And Terrorism with the Human Development Index: A Causality Analysis on MENA Countries," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 11(1), pages 226-234, September.
    4. Noman Ahmad & Alam Khan & Ihtisham ul Haq & Muhammad Hasnain Khalid & Seemab Ahmad, 2024. "The Impact of Terrorism on International Trade: A Panel Study for SAARC Countries," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 13(2), pages 671-676.
    5. Dmitry Kreptsev & Sergei Seleznev, 2017. "DSGE Model of the Russian Economy with the Banking Sector," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps27, Bank of Russia.
    6. Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada & Alam Khan & Donghyun Park, 2018. "The economic cost of the Islamic State on the Syrian and Iraqi economies," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1707-1730, July.
    7. Nunez,Gonzalo Ignacio & Pape,Utz Johann, 2022. "Poverty and Violence : The Immediate Impact of Terrorist Attacks against Civilians in Somalia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10169, The World Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism; Economic modeling; Economic desgrowth; Policy modeling; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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