IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v45y2015icp69-88.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Australian east coast gas supply cliff

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Simshauser
  • Tim Nelson

Abstract

On Australiaùs east coast over the period 2013ó2016, we forecast that aggregate demand for natural gas will increase three-fold, from 700 PJ to 2100 PJ per annum, while our forecast of system coincident peak demand increases 2.4 times, from 2790 TJ to 6690 TJ per day. This extraordinary growth is being driven by the development of three Liquefied Natural Gas plants at Gladstone, Queensland. In this article, we present our dynamic partial equilibrium model of the interconnected gas system and produce forecasts with daily resolution. We find that absent additional supply-side development, unserved load events will remain more than a theoretical possibility in the short-term due to inter-temporal spatial constraints. In the long-term, with appropriate policy settings in place, additional supplies will be brought to market, albeit at higher than historical prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Simshauser & Tim Nelson, 2015. "The Australian east coast gas supply cliff," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(c), pages 69-88.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:45:y:2015:i:c:p:69-88
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592615000041
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simshauser, Paul, 2018. "Garbage can theory and Australia's National Electricity Market: Decarbonisation in a hostile policy environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 697-713.
    2. Rai, Alan & Nunn, Oliver, 2020. "On the impact of increasing penetration of variable renewables on electricity spot price extremes in Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 67-86.
    3. Nelson, Tim, 2018. "East-coast Australian gas markets—Overcoming the lumpiness of capital allocation and temporal instability," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 103-112.
    4. Xunpeng (Roc) Shi & R. Quentin Grafton, 2018. "Reforming the Eastern Australian gas market," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 641-650, September.
    5. Billimoria, Farhad & Adisa, Olumide & Gordon, Robert L., 2018. "The feasibility of cost-effective gas through network interconnectivity: Possibility or pipe dream?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1370-1379.
    6. Flottmann, Jonty, 2024. "Australian energy policy decisions in the wake of the 2022 energy crisis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 238-248.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:45:y:2015:i:c:p:69-88. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.