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Impacts of Macroeconomic Forces and External Shocks on Real Output for Indonesia

Author

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  • Yu Hsing

    (Department of Management & Business Administration, College of Business, Southeastern Louisiana University, Hammond, Louisiana 7040,2 U.S.A.)

Abstract

Extending Romer (2000, 2006) and Taylor (1993, 1999, 2001), this paper applies the IS-MP model to study potential impacts of selected macroeconomic variables and external shocks including crude oil prices on real GDP for Indonesia. The results show that a higher real stock price, real appreciation of the rupiah, a lower inflation rate, a higher real crude oil price, and a lower real federal funds rate are expected to increase Indonesia’s real GDP. More deficit spending as a percent of GDP would not cause real output to rise. Hence, Indonesia would not suffer declining output because of higher oil prices. Due to the insignificant coefficient of the government deficit as a percent of GDP, fiscal prudence needs to be pursued.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Hsing, 2012. "Impacts of Macroeconomic Forces and External Shocks on Real Output for Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 97-104, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:42:y:2012:i:1:p:97-104
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    Cited by:

    1. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    2. Ibrahim Alnafrah & Sulaiman Mouselli, 2024. "Testing the External Shock Narrative of the Conflict on Transition Towards Knowledge Economy in Syria," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 958-991, March.
    3. Subiakto Sukarno & Marla Setiawati, 2020. "Do Various Sectors Respond to Oil Price Shocks? New Evidence for Indonesia as Emerging Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 371-376.
    4. Susan Sunila Sharma & Lutzardo Tobing & Prayudhi Azwar, 2018. "Understanding Indonesia’S Macroeconomic Data: What Do We Know And What Are The Implications?," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 21(2), pages 217-250, October.
    5. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2020. "Macroeconomic transmission of Eurozone shocks to India—A mean-adjusted Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 126-150.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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