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Exchange rate volatility and fluctuations in the extensive margin of trade

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  • Naknoi, Kanda

Abstract

The existing evidence for exporters׳ entry and exit in response to exchange rate movements is based on either low frequency data or a sample with large devaluations. Using quarterly data of U.S. bilateral trade with 99 countries, this study provides new evidence that the extensive margin of trade fluctuates over the business cycle. First, I show that the extensive margin of exports to the U.S. and the extensive margin of imports from the U.S. are more volatile than the output of almost all trading partners. Next, I find that fixing exchange rates with the U.S. dollar, having a free trade agreement with the U.S., and an increase in country size is significantly associated with the stability of the pattern of trade with the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Naknoi, Kanda, 2015. "Exchange rate volatility and fluctuations in the extensive margin of trade," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 322-339.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:52:y:2015:i:c:p:322-339
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2014.12.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhe Chen & Yoshinori Kurokawa, 2022. "Do exporters respond to both tariffs and nominal exchange rates? Evidence from Chinese firm‐product data," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 514-548, May.
    2. Lee, Kwan Yong & Naknoi, Kanda, 2024. "Exchange rates, invoicing currencies and the margins of exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Masashige Hamano & Pierre M. Picard, 2017. "Extensive and intensive margins and exchange rate regimes," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(3), pages 804-837, August.
    4. Wong Hock Tsen, 2016. "Exchange rate volatilities and disaggregated bilateral exports of Malaysia to the United States: empirical evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 289-314, August.
    5. Contessi, Silvio, 2015. "Multinational firms׳ entry and productivity: Some aggregate implications of firm-level heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 61-80.
    6. Imura, Yuko & Shukayev, Malik, 2019. "The extensive margin of trade and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 417-441.
    7. Stefano D’Addona & Lilia Cavallari, 2020. "External Shocks, Trade Margins, and Macroeconomic Dynamics," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, January.
    8. Cueyt SEVIM & Taylan Taner DOGAN, 2016. "Turkiye Ekonomisinde Ihracat ve Doviz Kuru Oynakligi Iliskisi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 303-318.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Extensive margin of exports; Extensive margin of imports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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