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Asset prices in a labor search model with confidence shocks

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  • Krivenko, Pavel

Abstract

This paper studies a labor search model with agents who are averse to ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty). Shocks to confidence about future productivity are modeled as changes in ambiguity. Using the Survey of Professional Forecasters data, I find that confidence shocks help explain the equity premium and the stock market volatility, including their term structure. Ambiguity amplifies the response of the economy to productivity shocks, helping the model produce more realistic dynamics of unemployment, vacancies, labor market tightness, stock prices, and returns. Returns in the model are predictable with price-dividend ratios; both returns and dividends are predictable with unemployment, like in the data. Two extensions consider shocks to bargaining power and to separation rate and find similar implications of ambiguity about these shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Krivenko, Pavel, 2023. "Asset prices in a labor search model with confidence shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:146:y:2023:i:c:s0165188922002676
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2022.104564
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor search; Equity premium; Ambiguity; Business cycle; Stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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