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Risk, Unemployment, and the Stock Market: A Rare-Event-Based Explanation of Labor Market Volatility

Author

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  • Mete Kilic
  • Jessica A. Wachter

Abstract

What is the driving force behind the cyclical behavior of unemployment and vacancies? What is the relation between job-creation incentives of firms and stock market valuations? We answer these questions in a model with time-varying risk, modeled as a small and variable probability of an economic disaster. A high probability implies greater risk and lower future growth, lowering the incentives of firms to invest in hiring. During periods of high risk, stock market valuations are low and unemployment rises. The model thus explains volatility in equity and labor markets, and the relation between the two.

Suggested Citation

  • Mete Kilic & Jessica A. Wachter, 2015. "Risk, Unemployment, and the Stock Market: A Rare-Event-Based Explanation of Labor Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 21575, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21575
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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Bloom & Fatih Guvenen & Sergio Salgado, 2016. "Skewed Business Cycles," 2016 Meeting Papers 1621, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Andrew Phiri, 2017. "The Unemployment-Stock Market Relationship in South Africa: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Cointegration Models," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 15(3 (Fall)), pages 231-254.
    3. Pan, Wei-Fong, 2018. "Does the stock market really cause unemployment? A cross-country analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 34-43.
    4. Otilia-Roxana Oprea & Ovidiu Stoica, 2018. "Capital Markets Integration and Economic Growth," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 14(3), pages 23-35.
    5. Sergei A. Aivazian & Mikhail Yu. Afanasiev & Alexander V. Kudrov, 2018. "Indicators of Regional Development Using Differentiation Characteristics," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 14(3), pages 7-22.
    6. Roberto Marfè & Julien Penasse, 2016. "The Time-Varying Risk of Macroeconomic Disasters," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 463, Collegio Carlo Alberto.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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