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Are credit rating agencies still relevant? Evidence on certification from Moody's credit watches

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  • Driss, Hamdi
  • Massoud, Nadia
  • Roberts, Gordon S.

Abstract

We show that a rating agency can provide certification for corporate borrowers through the mechanism of a credit watch with direction downgrade. We find that firms with watch-preceded rating confirmations (firms for which original ratings are confirmed after a credit watch warning) experience an increase in their long-term debt financing and ramp up their investment activities following the credit watch period. These firms are able to maintain their profitability from before to after the watch period, while we find no such evidence for firms with watch-preceded rating downgrades. Among firms with confirmed ratings, those with less access to credit markets obtain more long-term debt financing at a lower cost of debt capital only in the post-watch period, indicating that rating agencies can help alleviate firm capital constraints. The certification effects persist after controlling for potential endogeneity bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Driss, Hamdi & Massoud, Nadia & Roberts, Gordon S., 2019. "Are credit rating agencies still relevant? Evidence on certification from Moody's credit watches," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 119-141.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:59:y:2019:i:c:p:119-141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2016.08.003
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    4. Aggarwal, Nidhi & Singh, Manish K. & Thomas, Susan, 2023. "Do decreases in Distance-to-Default predict rating downgrades?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Kiesel, Florian & Kolaric, Sascha & Norden, Lars & Schiereck, Dirk, 2021. "To change or not to change? The CDS market response of firms on credit watch," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Winnie P. H. Poon & Jianfu Shen, 2020. "The roles of rating outlooks: the predictor of creditworthiness and the monitor of recovery efforts," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1063-1091, October.
    7. Kamran Ahmed Siddiqui & Ishtiaq Ahmed Bajwa & Faisal Al-Hudithi & Tarig Eltayeb & Asma Khatoon & Suliman Bawardi, 2021. "Entrepreneurs' opinion towards credit rating in Saudi Arabia," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 9(2), pages 186-197, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit rating agency; Credit watch; Certification; Corporate outcomes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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