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Fiscal policy lags and income adjustment processes

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  • De Cesare, Luigi
  • Sportelli, Mario

Abstract

The interest in the impact of fiscal policy lags on economic stability increased in the last decade. Several studies have been made on delays either in the government expenditure or in the tax system, where lags exist between the accrual and the payment of taxes. Nevertheless there is in the literature no model where time delays in government expenditures and in tax revenues are considered together as it happens in the real world. In this paper we remedied this defect and proposed a macro-dynamic model where two delays appear: the first pertains to the public expenditure, the second, to the tax revenue. The resulting system of delayed differential equations is studied qualitatively and numerically. The analysis suggests that only particular combinations of the two delays make the system stable. Prevalently the system is unstable and chaotic motions may arise. This implies that the economy may need appropriate structural changes in the public sector to improve fiscal policy outcomes in such a way they may really be consistent with their stabilization purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • De Cesare, Luigi & Sportelli, Mario, 2012. "Fiscal policy lags and income adjustment processes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 433-438.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:45:y:2012:i:4:p:433-438
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2011.10.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Neamţu, Mihaela & Opriş, Dumitru & Chilaˇrescu, Constantin, 2007. "Hopf bifurcation in a dynamic IS–LM model with time delay," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 519-530.
    2. Yoshida, Hiroyuki & Asada, Toichiro, 2007. "Dynamic analysis of policy lag in a Keynes-Goodwin model: Stability, instability, cycles and chaos," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 441-469, March.
    3. De Cesare, Luigi & Sportelli, Mario, 2005. "A dynamic IS-LM model with delayed taxation revenues," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 233-244.
    4. Akio Matsumoto, 2008. "Destabilizing Effects On Income Adjustment Process With Fiscal Policy Lags," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 713-735, November.
    5. Fanti, Luciano & Manfredi, Piero, 2007. "Chaotic business cycles and fiscal policy: An IS-LM model with distributed tax collection lags," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 736-744.
    6. Li, Kai & Wei, Junjie, 2009. "Stability and Hopf bifurcation analysis of a prey–predator system with two delays," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 2606-2613.
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