IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v169y2023ics0960077923000942.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Competition of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the pandemic transmission dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Jiaqi
  • Gu, Changgui
  • Ruan, Zhongyuan
  • Tang, Ming

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 has produced various variants during its ongoing evolution. The competitive behavior driven by the co-transmission of these variants has influenced the pandemic transmission dynamics. Therefore, studying the impact of competition between SARS-CoV-2 variants on pandemic transmission dynamics is of considerable practical importance. In order to formalize the mechanism of competition between SARS-CoV-2 variants, we propose an epidemic model that takes into account the co-transmission of competing variants. The model focuses on how cross-immunity influences the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through competitive mechanisms between strains. We found that inter-strain competition affects not only both the final size and the replacement time of the variants, but also the invasive behavior of new variants in the future. Due to the limited extent of cross-immunity in previous populations, we predict that the new strain may infect the largest number of individuals in China without control interventions. Moreover, we also observed the possibility of periodic outbreaks in the same lineage and the possibility of the resurgence of previous lineages. Without the invasion of a new variant, the previous variant (Delta variant) is projected to resurgence as early as 2023. However, its resurgence may be prevented by a new variant with a greater competitive advantage.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Jiaqi & Gu, Changgui & Ruan, Zhongyuan & Tang, Ming, 2023. "Competition of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the pandemic transmission dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:169:y:2023:i:c:s0960077923000942
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113193
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077923000942
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113193?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hideo Tanaka & Tsuyoshi Ogata & Toshiyuki Shibata & Hitomi Nagai & Yuki Takahashi & Masaru Kinoshita & Keisuke Matsubayashi & Sanae Hattori & Chie Taniguchi, 2022. "Shorter Incubation Period among COVID-19 Cases with the BA.1 Omicron Variant," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-7, May.
    2. Qiao, Jian-Qin & Li, Li, 2017. "Analysis of competitive infectious diseases with multiple strains," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 215-221.
    3. de León, Ugo Avila-Ponce & Avila-Vales, Eric & Huang, Kuan-lin, 2022. "Modeling COVID-19 dynamic using a two-strain model with vaccination," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    4. Rosanna C. Barnard & Nicholas G. Davies & Mark Jit & W. John Edmunds, 2022. "Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. González-Parra, Gilberto & Villanueva-Oller, Javier & Navarro-González, F.J. & Ceberio, Josu & Luebben, Giulia, 2024. "A network-based model to assess vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic by using Bayesian optimization," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. Lloyd A. C. Chapman & Maite Aubry & Noémie Maset & Timothy W. Russell & Edward S. Knock & John A. Lees & Henri-Pierre Mallet & Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau & Adam J. Kucharski, 2023. "Impact of vaccinations, boosters and lockdowns on COVID-19 waves in French Polynesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Tsuyoshi Ogata & Hideo Tanaka & Emiko Tanaka & Natsumi Osaki & Etsuko Noguchi & Yukino Osaki & Ayane Tono & Koji Wada, 2022. "Increased Secondary Attack Rates among the Household Contacts of Patients with the Omicron Variant of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Japan," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(13), pages 1-11, June.
    4. Lucia D. Willems & Vernandi Dyzel & Paula S. Sterkenburg, 2022. "COVID-19 Vaccination Intentions amongst Healthcare Workers: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(16), pages 1-20, August.
    5. Vashishth, Anil K. & Basaiti, Komal, 2024. "Modeling the effect of non-pharmaceutical measures and vaccination on the spread of two variants of COVID-19 in India," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 139-168.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:169:y:2023:i:c:s0960077923000942. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.